Daily Review of Urea: Downstream buying sentiment is not high, the market is in a game state (February 29)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on February 29 was 2,321.95, a decrease of 1.82 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.08% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.48%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR405 contract: 2114, the highest price: 2115, the lowest price: 2086, the settlement price: 2101, the closing price: 2088, the closing price is 50% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 2.34% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 2086-2115; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 162; the 05 contract has increased its position by 9671 lots today, and the position held so far is 206,900 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market price was slightly lowered. After the factory's early quotation was raised, market procurement slowed down. The current quotation was mainly stable, and the market turned weak.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,310 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,120 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,230 - 2,290 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,380 - 2,420 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,210 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,280 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers 'new orders are relatively good. Under the support of current new orders, the factory's ex-factory quotations are stable, and manufacturers have a better mentality and wait and see the price adjustment. In terms of the market, the market transaction atmosphere after the rise is slightly general. Currently, market transactions are mostly wait-and-see, factories are successively shipping goods in advance, and downstream purchases are slowing down. On the supply side, supply and deposits are expected to shrink and are still operating at a high level. On the demand side, agricultural demand has not yet started, and procurement is slightly deadlocked; industrial demand has gradually increased with the return to the market after the holiday, and the purchase and replenishment of raw materials has increased, and demand has gradually increased and released.

On the whole, urea companies are currently holding some new orders to be issued, supply stocks are expected to shrink, and demand still has room to be released. However, the buying atmosphere of industry companies is not very high. It is expected that the urea market price will stabilize and consolidate in a short period of time.