Daily Review of Urea: Resistance among industry operators is gradually emerging after price increases (February 28)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on February 28 was 2,323.77, an increase of 6.82 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.52%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2175, the highest price is 2178, the lowest price is 2116, the settlement price is 2138, and the closing price is 36 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.67% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2116-2178; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 137; the 05 contract has increased its position by 14400 lots today, and so far, it has held 197,200 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continued to rise slightly. Companies 'quotations were stable and moved slightly, on-site purchases slowed down, and fear of heights gradually emerged.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,310 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,120 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,230 - 2,290 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,380 - 2,420 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,230 - 2,380 yuan/ton, while the price of large particles has dropped to 2,280 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, after downstream bargain-hunting purchases, the manufacturers received better orders and increased orders. The current mentality is good and shipments are in progress one after another. In terms of the market, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the field is still strong, and the trading atmosphere is average. Recently, the number of new orders has increased, which has supported the market situation. In terms of supply, the industry's supply continues to be high, and supply may shrink slightly due to the increase in equipment maintenance next month. On the demand side, prices continue to rise, and downstream purchases are carefully followed up on demand, and resistance appears.

On the whole, urea companies are currently receiving better orders and under the expectation of shrinking supply and deposits, the quotations have increased slightly. The industry's resistance has appeared. It is expected that the urea market price will be slightly adjusted in a short period of time.