[Soda ash]2.27 Soda ash Daily Review: Market supply and demand are unbalanced, soda ash prices maintain a downward trend

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the spot market price of soda ash in China continues to fall. As of now, the price of light soda ash in the northwest region is between 1,850 - 1,900 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in the southwest region is between 2,150 - 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton; soda ash prices continue to be weak and downward. Due to recent market influence, soda ash companies are under greater pressure to ship; At the high level of enterprise start-up, some enterprises have expected to increase their equipment, industry start-up remains at a high level, market supply exceeds demand, soda ash companies prices continue to adjust, and some companies are not offering prices for the time being, and the soda ash market will continue to operate steadily and weakly.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2405, the main contract for soda ash, on February 27, was 1766 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1789 yuan/ton, an increase of-0.78% within the day. The intraday high was 1798 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1764 yuan/ton, with a total position of 580391 lots, a month-on-month +33803 lots.

Today, the main contract for soda ash dropped sharply. News that nearly 100,000 tons of imported alkali had arrived in Hong Kong again over the weekend, further squeezing the Chinese market. In addition, a large northwest factory has great inventory pressure. The ex-factory price has been lowered sharply again this week. After the current basis narrowed, the market will be driven downward, and the space below will open up again. However, the current downstream post-holiday replenishment logic has not yet been falsified, and the current increment on the supply side has basically been realized, lacking a negative driver for further growth. In the short-term, the market may still play a volatile game around 1750 to wait for new drivers.

market outlook

At present, most enterprises have maintained a high level of start-ups, and some enterprises will increase their quantities. There is no enterprise inventory and maintenance plan in the short term; the market is weak, prices continue to adjust downward, enterprise shipments are weak, inventories continue to increase, and supply and demand in the soda ash market are out of balance. soda ash prices are expected to be lowered again in the short term.