Methanol: The methanol period is now turbulent and upward, and the spot market transactions are better

On February 27th, the methanol market price index was 2256.46, up 17% from yesterday and 0.76% higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on February 26th:

China's CFR ranges from US $306 to US $315 per ton, up US $3 per ton
Us FOB 102.5-103.5 cents per gallon, down 0.5 cents per gallon
CFR in Southeast Asia is $354-$355 / ton, down $9.50 / ton.

European FOB 318-319 euros / ton, up 3.75 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2130-2200 (0), North Line: 2000-2040 (40), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: 2240-2265 (- 10), Shanxi: 2060-2150 (0), Port: 2690-2740 (45)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 280-340 (- 10 Uniqure 40), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 300-350 (- 20 Uniqmer 30), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 210-260 (0amp 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-280 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market fluctuates upwards. at present, the transportation in the Chinese market is gradually alleviated by the snowfall weather, the transportation situation in some areas has recovered, and the supply of negotiable goods on the market has increased compared with the previous period, coupled with the upward shock of the futures market, which forms a certain support for the mentality of the market operators. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been raised narrowly, with the quotation for the southern route around 2040 yuan / ton, the low end up by 40 yuan / ton, and the northern line around 2000-2040 yuan / ton. at present, the transportation situation on some road sections has been alleviated, and the downstream market demand may have improved. and there are external production operations in olefin plants in the region, and methanol consumption on the demand side has increased. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, was adjusted narrowly, with 2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong yesterday. With the gradual easing of logistics, the performance of downstream market demand has improved. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quoted 2280-2300 yuan / ton today, while Shanxi quoted 2060-2150 yuan / ton today. Today's market auction is better. At present, downstream methanol factories in the region have resumed work and production one after another. The demand for methanol has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated higher today. Within the month price shipment, rigid demand buying follow-up, the basis is strong. A small number of long-term unilateral high shipments, arbitrage and exchange negotiations, the basis is strong; within the month and forward price difference widened. The afternoon atmosphere eased slightly and the overall transaction was active. Taicang main port transaction price: 2 transaction price: 2690-2745, basis difference 05 "190max" 220 position 3 transaction: 2670-2730, base spread 05 "175 swap" 200 position 3 transaction price: 2650-2675, basis 05 "135max" 145 transaction 4 transaction: 2560-2610, basis difference 05 "63prime" 75.

Future forecast: from the perspective of the Chinese market, with the start-up or improvement of the traditional downstream market after the Lantern Festival, coupled with the operation of external mining of some olefin units in Ningxia, the demand side has improved to the market support. and this week, the transportation restrictions on some sections of China have been alleviated, freight prices have been lowered, and manufacturers' shipments have improved compared with the previous period. Port spot market quotation continues to be raised, futures market volatility is up, and spot circulation is tight, the basis is still strong, port arbitrage space is open. At present, the short-term methanol market price is expected to be strong, but in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro, coal prices, plant operation and downstream demand follow-up.