Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash spot market still maintains a weak operation. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,200 - 2,400 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northeast China is 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,350 - 2,550 yuan/ton; the start-up of enterprises continues to be high, and the market supply is sufficient; After the holiday, some downstream enterprises have storage needs for goods, but soda ash prices have continued to fall. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude, market purchasing sentiment is low, and soda ash inventories continue to show an increasing trend; today, the prices of new orders of some soda ash companies have been lowered again, and some companies will not quote for the time being. Due to the imbalance between market supply and demand, the soda ash market will continue to operate steadily and weakly.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2405, the main contract for soda ash, on February 26, was 1835 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1776 yuan/ton, an increase of-4.00% within the day. The intraday high was 1845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1776 yuan/ton, with a total position of 546588 lots, a month-on-month +39628 lots.
Today, the main contract for soda ash dropped sharply. News that nearly 100,000 tons of imported alkali had arrived in Hong Kong again over the weekend, further squeezing the Chinese market. In addition, a large northwest factory has great inventory pressure. The ex-factory price has been lowered sharply again this week. After the current basis narrowed, the market will be driven downward, and the space below will open up again. However, the current downstream post-holiday replenishment logic has not yet been falsified, and the current increment on the supply side has basically been realized, lacking a negative driver for further growth. In the short-term, the market may still play a volatile game around 1750 to wait for new drivers.
market outlook
The price of soda ash has been continuously lowered. Currently, most enterprises have started operations at a high level, and there is no enterprise inventory and maintenance plan in the short term. The price is weak, the company's shipments are weak, and the inventory continues to increase. The supply and demand in the soda ash market are unbalanced, and the price will continue to be adjusted downward.
