Methanol: Futures market is weak and volatile. China's quoted prices are adjusted within a narrow range

On February 26th, the methanol market price index was 2239.46, which was 0.48 lower than that of the previous working day and 0.02% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on February 23:

China CFR 305-308 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 103104 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR 363.5-364.5 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 314.25-315.25 euros / ton, up 8.50 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2120-2200 (0), North Route: 1960-2000 (0), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: 2250-2260 (- 30), Shanxi: 2060-2150 (0), Port: 2645-2670 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 290-380 (0amp Mueller 20), South Route-North Shandong 320-380 (- 10 Maxime 40), Shanxi-North Shandong 210-250 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-280 (- 20Compay 20)

Spot market: today, the price trend of methanol market is different. At present, the transportation in China's market is gradually alleviated by the snowfall weather, the transportation situation in some areas has recovered, the main producing areas are still dominated by warehouse drainage, and the downstream market demand is mediocre, and at the beginning of the week, the market operators' wait-and-see mood towards the future market is obvious, and the market trading atmosphere is light. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been raised narrowly, with the quotation for the southern route around 2000 yuan / ton and the northern line around 1960-2010 yuan / ton. at present, the transportation situation on some road sections has been alleviated, and the downstream market demand may have improved, but at present, the supply pressure in the region still exists, and the short-term market in the main producing areas is still dominated by depots. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, was adjusted in a narrow range, with 2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2320-2340 yuan / ton in northern Shandong yesterday. Downriver operators moderately asked for purchases, and the transaction of low-price resources was smooth, while that of high-price resources was limited. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotes 2280-2300 yuan / ton today, maintaining the last working day. Shanxi quoted 2060-2150 yuan / ton today. After the Lantern Festival, downstream product factories have started work and resumed production one after another, and the market trading activity has increased. However, at present, most of the industry inventory has accumulated in the market, and manufacturers pay attention to the auction situation of Shanxi manufacturers tomorrow.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated at high levels today. The spot is tight, the goods are sold under the month, and the rigid demand buys to follow up. Forward arbitrage and exchange of goods are dominant, the basis is stronger, and the price difference between the month and the forward is enlarged. It's a good deal. Taicang main port transaction price: 2 transaction price: 2645-2665, basis difference 05 "140max" 180 position 3 transaction: 2645-2655, base difference 05 "145max" 155 position transaction 3 transaction: 2605-2630, basis difference 05 "110max" 123Vane 4 transaction: 2555-2580, basis difference 05 "55max" 60.

Future forecast: with the relief of the transportation restriction caused by the snowfall, the transportation of some road sections is slowly recovering, and the market freight price is lower than that of the previous period, but at present, the follow-up of the downstream market demand is limited, although the downstream demand in some areas is gradually recovering, but considering the abundant inventory of downstream enterprises at present, the demand side still maintains a rigid demand for methanol consumption in the short term, but the port market is supported by tight spot circulation. The spot quotation remains strong, and the basis is still strong. At present, the short-term methanol market is expected to continue the regional trend, China's quotation is adjusted in a narrow range, and the port spot is arranged at a high level, but in the later stage, we still need to pay close attention to the macro, coal prices, the operation of on-site equipment and downstream pre-festival stock.