Daily Review of Urea: Market sentiment cools and Urea prices decline (February 26)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on February 26 was 2,311.05, a decrease of 12.41 from last Friday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.17%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2145, the highest price is 2150, the lowest price is 2111, the settlement price is 2132, and the closing price is 2138. The closing price is 34% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.57% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2111-2150; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 92; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 8574 lots today, and so far, it has held 180,000 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market price was lowered, and factory quotations were stable and declining. After the quotation was lowered, market transactions increased slightly.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,290 - 2,360 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,120 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,220 - 2,280 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,380 - 2,420 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,210 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the situation of orders acquiring after the price increase of manufacturers is average. The current quotation is slightly loose and adjusted, and orders are slightly picking up. The company's inventory continues to remain high. With the recovery of logistics, the company's shipments have increased. In terms of the market, the market trading atmosphere has cooled down, a small number of new orders have been sold, the current market price has fallen slightly, the market has been weak and fluctuated, and market transactions have remained tepid. On the supply side, starting this week, the industry has increased in equipment maintenance, starting stocks are expected to decline, and short-term supply has been consolidated downward. On the demand side, follow-up on the demand side has weakened, price support is limited, labor demand continues to increase, downstream factories are recovering slowly, and positive demand for urea will gradually be released.

Overall, the current urea market has cooled down compared with the previous atmosphere, and demand is still in the process of recovering. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in a short period of time.