Daily Review of Urea: Affected by emotions, market demand has slowed down (February 22)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on February 22 was 2,325.27, a decrease of 5.00 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.21% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.36%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2145, the highest price is 2181, the lowest price is 2139, the settlement price is 2163, and the closing price is 2176. Compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, the month-on-month increase is 1.16%. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2139-2181; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 84; the 05 contract has increased its position by 4113 lots today, and the position held so far is 193,200 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices fell slightly, and factory quotations were stable and minor. As demand followed and slowed down, the weak ex-factory quotations of companies were mainly consolidated.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,290 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,160 - 2,390 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,240 - 2,310 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,380 - 2,420 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,250 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,310 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers 'quotations continue to operate steadily. Based on the current impact of rain and snow weather in various places, shipments are relatively slow, and the market is operating firmly in a short period of time. In terms of the market, the market trading atmosphere has cooled, new orders have been traded weak, the market has temporarily weakened and fluctuated, prices have fallen slightly, and transactions have remained tepid. On the supply side, Nissan in the industry continues to operate at a high level. Affected by the current strong market sentiment, the supply side is under pressure, which has suppressed the upward price. On the demand side, demand is gradually resistant to high market prices, and the pace of follow-up of new orders has slowed down. Coupled with the impact of rain and snow in the north, agricultural procurement has weakened compared with the previous period. Industrial market procurement has continued to recover slowly, and the overall demand side has slowly followed up.

On the whole, the current urea factory continues to receive advance in advance of shipment, and the quotation is stable. The demand side is based on emotional influence. Follow-up is slowing down and wait-and-see continues. It is expected that the urea market price will stabilize significantly in the short term, or there will be a slight downward adjustment.