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PVC: Futures volatility bottomed out, rebounded slightly upward, the market slightly reduced positions, and spot offers diverged

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February 21, 2024, 4:29 PM

PVC futures analysis: February 21 V2405 contract opening price: 5808, highest price: 5862, lowest price: 5791, position: 774323, settlement price: 5828, yesterday settlement: 5818, up: 10, daily trading volume: 726760 lots, precipitated capital: 3.166 billion, capital inflow: 720000.

 

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area

February twentieth

February 21st

Rise and fall

Remarks

North China

5520-5600

5520-5600

0/0

Send to cash remittance

East China

5570-5680

5550-5650

-20/-30

Cash out of the warehouse

South China

5640-5680

5650-5680

10/0

Cash out of the warehouse

Northeast China

5400-5600

5400-5600

0/0

Send to cash remittance

Central China

5530-5590

5530-5590

0/0

Send to cash remittance

Southwest

5460-5630

5460-5630

0/0

Kuti / send to

 

PVC spot market:    China PVC market mainstream transaction price trend differentiation, the market shows a mixed trend. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is down 20-30 yuan / ton, South China is up 10 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central China and Southwest China are stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remained stable, with a small tentative increase of 20 yuan / ton for individual enterprises. At present, most merchants in the spot market have returned to the market, the futures are fluctuating in a narrow range, and both the spot price and the spot price coexist in the spot market. the morning price offer of traders in some areas is slightly higher than that of yesterday, but the price in some high-priced areas is slightly lower, and the basis offer is narrowed slightly. Among them, 05 contract in East China-(230-250), 05 contract in South China-(150-200), 05 contract in North China-(500-550) Southwest 05 contract-(250). On the whole, there is a certain point price hanging order transaction in the low range of the spot market, the transaction at one price is not ideal, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the lower reaches maintains rigid demand, but there is no obvious improvement, but some traders replenish the goods in the low range.

 

Futures point of view:   PVC2405 contract night futures prices rose slightly after the opening of a narrow range of shocks, late weakening to give up night trading gains. After the start of morning trading, the price bottomed out and rebounded, showing a concussive upward trend, rising to a high in the afternoon and falling slightly in late trading. 2405 contracts range from 5791 to 5862 throughout the day, with a price difference of 71. 05. the position of the contract has been reduced by 1894 hands, and the position has been held so far by 774323 lots. The 2409 contract closed at 5966, with 95632 positions.

 

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the futures of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract showed a slight reduction in positions, but the turnover was still slightly more short, of which 23.2% opened short compared to 22.2% more. The futures price has rebounded to a certain extent from the low point, but the overall fluctuation range is still narrowing, and the operating range of the futures price continues the pre-festival rhythm, repeatedly testing the bottom range, but can not form an effective upside. The technical level shows that the third track of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) narrows, the high point of the futures price slightly rises through the middle track position, and the KD line and MACD line at the daily level rise slightly, but the trend of narrow fluctuation makes the reference significance of the trend line become smaller. as a whole, the price fluctuation in the short term may still be relatively narrow, and observe the performance in the range of 5780-5950.

 

Spot aspect:    The current volatility range and volatility mode of the two cities have once again returned to the pre-festival pace of change, the continuous test low range of futures prices can not effectively fall below 5800, and there is a certain degree of single resistance below the spot market. there is also a certain receiving behavior in the low range of the spot market, and there are still certain expectations in the face of demand recovery, but if you want to form a sustained upward trend, the current macro and fundamentals are also not supported. From the point of view of the overall midline, the restriction of real estate on PVC products is still relatively obvious. PVC does not have good fundamentals, so some believe that the current PVC is an empty product, while the spot market is also faced with the shackles of high inventory for a long time. On the outer disk, international oil prices fell as concerns about the bleak outlook for demand outweighed concerns about supply chain disruptions caused by rising tensions in the Middle East. On the whole, the PVC spot market may continue to sort out slightly in the short term.

 

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread

PVC

Contract price difference

Price 2.20

Price 2.21

Rate of change

V2405 collection

5816

5841

25

Average spot price in East China

5625

5600

-25

Average spot price in South China

5660

5665

5

PVC2405 basis difference

-191

-241

-50

V2409 collection

5941

5966

25

V2405-2409 close

-125

-125

0

PP2405 collection

7376

7389

13

Plastic L2405 collection

8142

8153

11

V--PP basis difference

-1560

-1548

12

Vmure-L basis difference of plastics

-2326

-2312

14

 

China PVC Index:     according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index was 5590.06, down 6.36, or 0.114%. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5931.03, up 58.22, with a range of 0.991%, while the calcium carbide index decreased, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 340.97.


 

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety

Warehouse / branch warehouse

2.20 warehouse orders

2.21 warehouse receipts

change

Polyvinyl chloride

China Reserve shares

2,645

2,645

0

 

Guangzhou materials

943

943

0

 

China Central Reserve Nanjing

1,702

1,702

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Cosco sea logistics

2,425

2,425

0

 

Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea

1,522

1,522

0

 

Middle and far sea in Jiangyin

903

903

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Zhejiang International Trade

5,326

5,326

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Peak supply chain

2,723

2,723

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Jiangyin Xiefeng

4,790

4,790

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Benniu Port, Changzhou

21,600

21,600

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Hangzhou port logistics

153

153

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Jiangsu Zhengsheng

3,678

3,678

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai

84

84

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Changxing, Zhejiang

639

639

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Jiangsu Yanjin

3,682

3,682

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)

300

300

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)

230

230

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)

298

298

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)

149

149

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)

450

450

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)

300

300

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)

1,200

1,200

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)

2,399

2,399

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)

1,494

1,494

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)

1,238

1,238

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Sinotrans East China

1,687

1,687

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)

581

581

0

Polyvinyl chloride

Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)

0

32

32

PVC subtotal

 

58,071

58,103

32

Total

 

58,071

58,103

32

 

PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:

 

The information provided in this report is for reference only.