Methanol: Snowfall weather affects transportation, and the Chinese market is weak

On February 21, the methanol market price index was 2221.19, down 21.18 from yesterday, and 0.94% lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

On February 20, methanol closed:

China CFR 295-305 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 101102cents / gallon, up 2 cents / gallon
Southeast Asia CFR 363.5-364.5 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 287.5-288.5 euros / ton, up 9 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2120-2200 (0), North Route: 1900-2000 (0), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: 2280-2300 (0), Shanxi: 2060-2230 (0), Port: 2590-2615 (- 45)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 290-400 (0amp 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 340-410 (0amp 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 210-240 (10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 250-260 (50max 20)

Spot market: today, the price trend of methanol market is divided, the decline of futures market slows down, the Chinese market continues to be weak, affected by the snowfall weather, the transportation of some road sections in the field is restricted, and the shipping pressure of some manufacturers in the main producing areas increases. Manufacturers have to let profit to sell goods in order to reduce inventory, but the enthusiasm of downstream operators to enter the market and replenish goods is limited, and the market transaction atmosphere is poor. Specifically, market prices in the main producing areas have fallen in a narrow range, with quotations for the southern route around 1980 yuan / ton and the northern line around 1900-2000 yuan / ton, while prices from manufacturers in the region have fallen somewhat, the enthusiasm of downstream operators to enter the market to replenish goods is poor, and most operators hold a wait-and-see mood, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is limited. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, was adjusted narrowly, with 2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2310-2400 yuan / ton in northern Shandong yesterday. Affected by the new round of snowfall, transportation on some road sections was restricted, freight remained high, and enterprises took the initiative to give way to freight. However, the wait-and-see mood of the operators in the market is more obvious, and it is more cautious to replenish goods in the market. The market quotation in North China fell narrowly. Hebei quoted 2250-2300 yuan / ton today, and Shanxi quoted 2060-2230 yuan / ton today. Recently, the Chinese market has ushered in snowfall in many places, and the circulation of goods in the region is limited. But at present, the inventory pressure in the downstream market is still there, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market to pick up goods is not good.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded and fluctuated today. Spot demand is mediocre. Paper goods open arbitrage selling mainly, the basis is slightly stronger; in the morning with the futures rebound, unilateral shipments increased, the basis fell; afternoon trading stabilized. The goods are exchanged frequently in recent months, and the price difference has narrowed. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 2 transaction price: 2595-2615, basis difference 05: 120pm transaction price: 2590-2615, basis difference: 05pm 120pm transaction price: 2570-2595, basis difference: 05x100 pound 105x 4 transaction: 2515-2535, basis difference 05x45.

Forecast in the future: recently, the Chinese market has ushered in snowy weather, there are many restrictions on on-site transportation, and freight prices remain high, and at present, the recovery of downstream market demand is relatively slow, and the shipping pressure of manufacturers in the main producing areas is increasing. in order to reduce inventory, more storage, price reduction and other operations, but the actual transaction has not improved significantly, coupled with the weak volatility of the futures market, most of the operators hold a wait-and-see mood towards the future market, and the enthusiasm to enter the market and replenish stock is limited. It is expected that the Chinese market price may continue to be weak in the short term. From the point of view of the port market, with the weak operation of the futures market, the spot quotation of the port has also dropped somewhat, but at present, the inventory of the port market is still in the state of de-stocking. The Xingxing 690000-ton plant has resumed operation before the Spring Festival, and the current construction is stable. The rigid demand consumption of the regional market is stable, and the import supply is still expected to decrease in the later stage. Under the good performance of supply and demand, the price fluctuation of the port market may be relatively limited. However, in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro, coal prices, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.