Daily review of urea: Goods transportation is blocked, market prices are loosened and lowered (February 21)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on February 21 was 2,330.27, a decrease of 3.18 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.04%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2129, the highest price is 2177, the lowest price is 2125, the settlement price is 2151, and the closing price is 2142. The closing price is flat compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, with a fluctuation range of 2125-2177 throughout the day; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 138; the 05 contract has increased its position by 222 lots today, and has held 189,100 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the price of urea in China's market was slightly loosened and lowered. The market was affected by the weather, and shipments fell. The current market atmosphere has cooled down compared with previous days, and prices have been consolidated downward.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,290 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,160 - 2,390 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,250 - 2,310 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,380 - 2,430 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,250 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,310 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers have achieved average new orders. Currently, most manufacturers have no pressure on shipments, and their quotations continue to be strong. Most of them adjust their quotations based on the number of orders they have to issue. In terms of the market, the market has been affected by rainy and snowy weather in recent days, and shipments have slowed down. The market trading atmosphere has been weak, and the focus of overall transaction negotiations has shifted downward. In terms of supply, industry supply remains high, and the unit operating rate remains at around 87%. In terms of demand, the market demand is affected by rain and snow, and follow-up has slowed down in a short period of time. Goods in the agricultural market have weakened compared with the previous period. Demand in the industrial market is still slowly increasing. Goods in the compound fertilizer market are expected to continue to improve. Currently, low-end goods have increased, high-priced transactions have been blocked, and actual market transaction prices have moved closer to the low-end.

On the whole, the current supply of urea in the market is high. Coupled with the impact of rain and snow, cargo transportation is blocked and the market atmosphere has cooled down. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to remain weak in the short term and the overall operation will be stable.