Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market is operating steadily and weakly. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Central China is 2,000 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in North China is 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton; As downstream companies recover one after another, there is a small amount of replenishment demand in the market, and the market's willingness to purchase is not high. However, the overall start-up of enterprises is high, and the inventory of some manufacturers is increasing. Manufacturers are under high shipping pressure, and the spot market price of soda ash is weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2405, the main contract for soda ash, on February 20, was 1828 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1846 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of +0.49%. The intraday high was 1864 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1805 yuan/ton, with a total position of 464142 lots, a month-on-month +33972 lots.
Today, the main contract for soda ash fluctuated within a narrow range. Today's five-year LPR exceeded expectations, but the performance of commodities in the real estate chain that benefited a lot weakened. The reason may be that the main commodity contracts are getting closer and closer to the delivery time, and the macro expected trading logic may gradually shift to their own realistic and fundamental logic. However, today's announcement of interest rate cuts is actually a good result and a weak reality is missing a macro resistance. The logic of soda ash itself is currently supported by the theoretical cost of ammonia and soda of 1800 yuan, and the news of slight disturbance on the supply side in the intraday led to a slight rebound. The market is currently waiting for downstream resumption of work and replenishment after the holiday. Before that, it may be dominated by shock consolidation.
market outlook
As inquiries in the soda ash market resume one after another, the market's willingness to purchase is not high, so we should operate more cautiously and maintain the focus of replenishing goods just needed. While the market supply is high, the soda ash market is showing a trend of oversupply, and the inventory of some companies is increasing. It is expected that in the short term, the soda ash market will be volatile and weak.
