Methanol: Futures market fluctuates downward and Chinese market is weak

On February 20th, the methanol market price index was 2249.23, down 2.59 from yesterday, down 0.11% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

On February 19th, methanol closed:

China CFR 300-310USD / ton, Ping
Us FOB 99-100cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 363.5-364.5 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 278-279 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2120-2200 (0), North Route: 1950-2000 (0), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: 2280-2290 (0), Shanxi: 2060-2230 (- 2230), Port: 2635-2660 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 290-380 (10amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 340-410 (10max 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 200-240 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-240 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price is weak, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream market continues to rework, but the current demand recovery is relatively slow, coupled with the main production area manufacturers have a certain inventory demand, the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is limited. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has fallen narrowly, with the quotation on the south line around 1980 yuan / ton, the low end down by 50 yuan / ton, and the price on the north line around 1950-2000 yuan / ton. at present, the freight prices of some road sections are high, and manufacturers take the initiative to give way to freight charges in order to reduce inventories, but at present, downstream demand is generally followed up, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is general. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, was adjusted in a narrow range, with southern Shandong at 2400 yuan / ton. Yesterday, northern Shandong was 2310-2340 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton compared with yesterday. Futures market volatility fell, the wait-and-see mood of the market was obvious, and the market transaction was slightly cautious. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotes 2300-2400 yuan / ton today. The lower reaches maintain rigid demand for bargain-hunting, and the trading atmosphere is general. Shanxi quotes 2060-2230 yuan / ton today. The bidding prices of most enterprises in the market are lower than before the festival, and the stock and flow auction is relatively slow at present, and the spot market atmosphere is light.

Port market: methanol futures fell today. Spot buying is reduced and the basis is slightly weaker. 2 under arbitrage trading, unilateral participation is less, the basis is stable; long-term part of the low price to receive goods, the basis is slightly stronger. The price difference between the month and the forward exchange narrowed. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2590-2615, base difference 05: 125Universe 128 position 2 transaction: 2585-2620, base difference 05: 127Universe 128 position transaction 3 transaction: 2560-2590, base difference 05: 100 × 4 transaction: 2505-2520, basis difference 05: 45.

Future forecast: recently, the overall supply performance of the Chinese market is relatively abundant, and during the Spring Festival holiday, the Chinese market is affected by the factors of logistics outage, and the inventory pressure of some manufacturers is highlighted, and there is a certain storage demand. And the freight prices of some road sections remain high, manufacturers in the main producing areas have to give way to freight in order to reduce inventory, but at present, the recovery of downstream demand is relatively slow, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market and replenish goods is not high. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is light. At present, the futures market is weak and volatile, the mentality of some operators in the market is empty, the enthusiasm for restocking is limited, and methanol market prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, but in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro and coal prices, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.