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Caustic soda: The price of spot high-concentration alkali continued to increase, and the futures price jumped short and opened higher before shaking

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February 20, 2024, 4:09 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    February 20 SH2405 contract opening price: 2674, highest price: 2691, lowest price: 2651, position: 46893, settlement price: 2671, yesterday settlement: 2647, up: 24, closing price: 2671, daily trading volume: 39994 lots, precipitated capital: 902 million, capital inflow: 63.34 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

February nineteenth

February twentieth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

752-784

752-784

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

710-810

710-810

0/0

-

Hebei

730-810

730-800

0/-10

Ex-factory price

South China

960-1080

960-1080

0/0

Can price

Shandong

700-770

700-770

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1005-1030

1005-1030

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

820-860

820-880

0/20

Delivery price

Tianjin

2300-2400

2300-2400

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

830-850

830-850

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2400-2650

2400-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1200-1280

1280-1400

80/120

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1300-1330

1380-1410

80/80

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1200-1280

1280-1360

80/80

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2550-2590

2600-2670

50/80

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3100-3300

3100-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2700-2850

2700-2850

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3200-3350

3200-3350

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1250-1350

1270-1350

20/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

900-630

900-630

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

2700-2800

2700-2800

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:      today China caustic soda prices continue to show a regional upward trend, high concentration caustic soda prices continue to rise in various regions, low concentration caustic soda prices are adjusted sporadically, flake caustic soda prices move steadily and slightly, and the center of gravity of market transactions in some regions has slightly moved up. Today, the price of high concentration alkali in the liquid alkali market continues to rise, while the price of low concentration alkali has only been adjusted in a few regions, and the direction is different. From the point of view of price adjustment in various regions, 32% of ionic membrane alkali has individually dropped by 10 yuan / ton. Individual increases of 20 yuan / ton, 50% of ionic membrane alkali rose 50-120 yuan / ton, the prices of other concentrations of alkali have almost remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. High concentration alkali enterprise inventory is at a low level, and the overall performance of enterprise shipments is OK, so the market transaction price center of gravity continues to move up. The price of low concentration alkali shows regional difference in supply and demand, and the price is mainly adjusted flexibly. In most other areas, the supply and demand sides maintain the previous level, the performance of enterprise shipments is average, the downstream receiving situation remains stable, the mentality of operators is relatively cautious, and the price level mostly maintains the previous level. A small number of upstream production enterprises adjust ex-factory prices, and ups and downs vary, most manufacturers wait and see to stabilize prices, the mentality is relatively cautious. Today, the pre-sale situation of manufacturers in the tablet alkali market is OK, the ex-factory quotations in some regions have been raised, and the new order prices of most manufacturers have not been announced; in a few areas, the center of gravity of transaction prices has slightly moved up due to the increase in factory quotations, and the enthusiasm of inquiry in the market has increased somewhat, but the overall transaction performance is slightly general, the downstream procurement performance is different, and some operators are still mainly waiting and seeing the market.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract night open high, the final shock operation, after the early price slightly upward, then began to shock downside, the late trading small rebound, afternoon price volatility. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2651-2691 throughout the day, with a price difference of 40 points and an increase of 3097 positions in contracts, with 46893 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index was 2680.53, up 34.33%, or 1.297%, and China's caustic soda index rose.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Spot aspect: at present, the high concentration alkali market runs well under the support of fundamentals. On the one hand, the demand recovers after the holiday, on the other hand, the enterprise inventory pressure is small and the equipment load is dissatisfied, which supports the market as a whole. On the other hand, the low concentration alkali enterprises have the phenomenon of accumulation, and there are some differences between supply and demand in different regions, and the price is mainly adjusted flexibly as a whole. There is snow again in the northwest region, according to local operators, the roads are frozen, which has a certain impact on the source of goods transportation, follow-up need to pay attention to the actual shipments of enterprises and downstream arrival. It is expected that the short-term caustic soda market may continue to show regional adjustment prices, liquid alkali prices or differential operation, tablet alkali market prices or a narrow increase.

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract price today did not see a big market, throughout the day shock operation, but the high price hit the mid-track position. Market turnover: 16% more than empty 17.9%, empty 15.7% versus more than 15.5%, capital entry is obvious. The technical level shows that the opening of the third rail of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) narrows, the KD line at the daily level shows a golden fork trend, and the MACD line continues to show a dead fork trend and the dead fork trend narrows somewhat. Today's futures close shows a negative column cross star, the lower shadow line is relatively long, short-term to look at the price or there is still an upward trend, pay attention to the trend near the middle orbit.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

February nineteenth

February twentieth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

-100-1

-100-1

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

-100-1

-100-1

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

-300-1

-100-1

200/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

100-200

1-150

-99/-50

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

1-100

1-100

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

-100-100

-100-100

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index rose 5.56%, or 4.16%, to 139 on February 20. China's liquid chlorine index rose.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: