Daily Review of Urea: Agricultural demand follows up to alleviate price weakness and focuses on consolidation (February 20)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on February 20 was 2,333.45, an increase of 4.36 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.19% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.75%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2170, the highest price is 2170, the lowest price is 2124, the settlement price is 2142, the closing price is 47% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 2.15% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 2124-2170; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 158; the 05 contract has increased its position by 14614 lots today, with 188,900 lots held so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices rebounded slightly. Most manufacturers 'quotations remained stable. Market demand followed suit and weakened, and the market showed signs of loosening and downward adjustment.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,290 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,160 - 2,340 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have stabilized at 2,270 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,380 - 2,480 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,250 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,310 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers receive orders better. Currently, with the support of pending orders, there is no pressure on shipments, and the overall mentality is strong. In terms of the market, due to the recent weather and continued price increases, trading among industry operators has slowed down. Driven by emotion, the current market price rise has weakened. In terms of supply, there are currently a small number of equipment failures and maintenance equipment in the industry, and Nissan is gradually recovering, and the market spot supply continues to be sufficient. On the demand side, the current agricultural shipment is declining, and the overall pace is slowing down compared with the previous two days; follow-up on industrial demand is still slowly recovering, and follow-up is slow, demand is negative, and price upward has been suppressed.

On the whole, the current agricultural demand is weakening, labor demand is recovering slowly, market demand is weakening, coupled with the impact of sufficient supply and negative impact, it is expected that the urea market price will be mainly weakened in the short term.