Analysis of soda ash market
Today, prices in some areas of China's soda ash market have been lowered. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Central China is between 2,000 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in East China is between 2,100 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton; after the holiday, transactions in the soda ash market are weak, and downstream companies are more cautious in purchasing, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude; The start-up of soda ash manufacturers has basically remained normal, and the overall market is still high. The follow-up situation of new orders has not been good. The inventory of some manufacturers has increased, and soda ash prices have stabilized and weakened.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2405, the main contract for soda ash, on February 19, was 1890 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1841 yuan/ton, an increase of-6.31% within the day. The intraday high was 1890 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1815 yuan/ton, with a total position of 430168 lots, a month-on-month +39010 lots.
Today, the main contract for soda ash gapped short and opened lower, and then continued downward. Due to the high production of soda ash companies during the Spring Festival holiday and limited demand, manufacturers have greatly exhausted their warehouses. There are many negative news such as market rumors that Yuanxing's fourth line has been put into operation, Qinghai's environmentally limited enterprises have raised their burdens, and a large number of import expectations. The large increase in soda ash supply has made downstream purchasing willingness low, and the spot market has also experienced large price cuts. Negative market feedback may continue in the short term. However, the cost support of 1800 yuan on the market has not been broken, and there is still a demand for resumption of work downstream of light soda. In the short term, the soda ash market may remain weak. In addition, we need to pay attention to whether the LPR will be lowered more than expected tomorrow and the macro sentiment will rebound due to the upcoming two sessions.
market outlook
After the holiday, inquiries in the soda ash market have resumed one after another, and the market supply is high. However, the willingness of the demand side to replenish the warehouse is limited. The purchase of new orders by enterprises is weak. The inventory of some enterprises is increasing. It is expected that the soda ash market will be volatile and weak in the short term.
