Methanol: Futures market fluctuated slightly weaker Chinese market mixed

On February 19th, the methanol market price index was 2251.81, down 5.66 from the previous working day, and 0.25% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on February 18:
Us FOB 99-100cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 363.5-364.5 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 278-279 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2120-2200 (- 30), North Route: 1950-2000 (- 30), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: 2280-2320 (5), Shanxi: 2200-2300 (0), Port: 2660-2680 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 280-380 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 330-400 (0amp 20), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 200-240 (30mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-240 (40max 30)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is mixed, the futures market is slightly weaker, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is light. At present, the overall supply performance of the Chinese market is relatively abundant, and some regional manufacturers are affected by factors such as transportation restrictions during the Spring Festival holiday. Inventory has increased compared with the previous period, at this stage, some manufacturers in the main production areas have a certain demand for inventory, and the factory quotation has dropped somewhat. Specifically, the market price arrangement and operation in the main producing areas, the quotation on the southern route revolves around 2030 yuan / ton, and the quotation on the northern line revolves around 1950-2000 yuan / ton. after the festival, the inventory pressure of some manufacturers in the region has appeared, and there is a demand for more storage and storage at present. however, the recovery speed of the overall demand downstream is slow, and the trading atmosphere is general. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer, are adjusted in a narrow range, with southern Shandong 2400 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's northern Shandong 2350-2380 yuan / ton. some downstream markets resume work with a small amount of replenishment, but the overall transaction volume is limited, and we still need to pay attention to tomorrow's market bidding. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2300-2400 yuan / ton today. At present, the overall supply performance in the region is slightly abundant, and the rigid demand for transactions downstream is mainly, and the rising power of market prices in the short term is insufficient. Shanxi quotes 2200-2300 yuan / ton today. Market operators have a strong wait-and-see mood towards the future and pay attention to tomorrow's market auction.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated in a narrow range today. Spot rigid demand negotiation. Paper arbitrage and exchange of goods mainly, buying follow-up, unilateral participation is limited, the basis is stronger than before the festival. It's a mediocre deal. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2635-2660, base difference 05x130pm 132bot 2 transaction: 2635-2650, base spread 05x125amp 128x 3deal: 2595-2620, basis difference 05x86max 92.

Future forecast: with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, transportation restrictions may be alleviated, freight prices on some road sections may fall, and manufacturers in the main producing areas may have a certain demand for storage after the festival. the supply of goods that can be circulated in the Chinese market may increase, but considering that the demand of the terminal downstream market recovers relatively slowly, the overall replenishment enthusiasm after the festival is general, and the market transaction volume is limited. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the Chinese market still appears, and the Chinese market may continue to be weak in the short term, but the port market is strong due to the expected reduction in imports and little inventory pressure, but it is necessary to pay close attention to the macro and coal prices in the later stage. the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.