Daily Review of Urea: Active trading in the agricultural demand market after the holiday, prices are running firm (February 19)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on February 19 was 2,329.09, an increase of 20.64 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.82%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR405 contract: 2211, the highest price: 2224, the lowest price: 2156, the settlement price: 2189, the closing price: 2161. The closing price increased by 10 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.46% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 2156-2224; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong region is 139; the 05 contract has increased its position by 12121 lots today, with 174,300 lots held so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to increase, and agricultural demand in mainstream regions continues to follow suit. Companies have started at high levels and are ready to go in large quantities, jointly benefiting the upward trend of prices.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,290 - 2,350 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,160 - 2,350 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,270 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,380 - 2,450 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,270 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,310 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,290 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,280 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most manufacturers are currently waiting to be supported by orders, so shipments are not under pressure. Quotes are often adjusted upwards. Some mainstream regional companies have begun to restrict orders and have a strong mentality. In terms of the market, the enthusiasm for purchasing goods downstream in mainstream areas has increased, which has led to a warmer atmosphere in the venue, a significant increase in trading activity, and a shift in the focus of overall market negotiations. In terms of supply, the equipment started to operate at a high level, the industry's daily output continued to increase, and the market supply was sufficient. In terms of demand, downstream farmers 'demand for goods has increased after the holiday, and the current follow-up situation is still acceptable; labor demand is still recovering one after another, and demand is slowly following up.

On the whole, trading in the agricultural demand market is relatively active after the holiday, which is favorable for the upward trend of market prices. As downstream factories continue to recover in the later period, industrial demand will also follow suit. It is expected that urea market prices will continue to operate steadily and firmly in the short term.