PVC: Futures got off to a head start, Masukura fell by 110,000 hands, and the spot market weakened

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February 19, 2024, 3:37 PM

PVC futures analysis: February 19 V2405 contract opening price: 5886, highest price: 5909, lowest price: 5780, position: 753103, settlement price: 5824, yesterday settlement: 5887, down: 63, daily trading volume: 591260 lots, precipitated capital: 4.354 billion, capital inflow: 566 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	February eighteenth	February nineteenth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5550-5610	5510-5570	-40/-40	Send to cash remittance
East China	5650-5710	5550-5650	-100/-60	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5710-5780	5620-5680	-90/-100	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5450-5600	5400-5550	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5560-5600	5530-5590	-30/-10	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5490-5650	5460-5630	-30/-20	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices are down at the beginning, the market atmosphere in various regions is not good. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 40 yuan / ton in North China, 60-100 yuan / ton in East China, 90-100 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 10-30 yuan / ton in Central China and 20-30 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices are mostly stable, coinciding with the return of the Spring Festival on Monday, production enterprises more wait-and-see mentality did not adjust the factory price. The downward trend of the futures market is obvious, the price offer of traders in various regions is lower than that of yesterday, and it is difficult to have a single transaction in one price, and the price advantage of the basis offer is obvious after the futures price goes down. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(220-250), South China 05 contract-(150-220), North 05 contract-(500-560), Southwest 05 contract-(250). The enthusiasm of purchasing spot in the lower reaches is not high for the time being, the price of hanging orders is low, some downstream enterprises have not yet returned to the market, and the market offers of most traders have increased. Overall, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is light.

From the perspective of futures: & the opening price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract began to decline continuously, the intraday price was weak and difficult to change, continued to fall below the 5800 mark, and the afternoon price as a whole focused on a narrow range of lows. 2405 contracts range from 5784 to 5909 throughout the day, with a spread of 125. 05. The contract increased its position by 110390 hands, and has held 753103 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5902, with 85274 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures on the first trading day after the opening holiday, that is, showed a substantial increase in Cangyu 110000 hands, the price decline was obvious, and the empty opening suppressed 32.7% of the open compared with 29.1% more, and the performance of long and short positions was less today. The technical level shows that the lower rail of the Bolin belt (13,13,2) turns down obviously, the upper rail has the meaning of turning, and the KD line and MACD line of the daily line level cross. After running through the middle track, the futures price showed a clear downward trend, and as we expected yesterday, the futures price once again showed the characteristics of confirming the bottom. Overall, the operation of futures prices in the short term continues to observe the performance of the low range of 5730-5800.

Spot aspect: is facing the increase and decline of futures market, the performance of the spot market is that the spot quotation begins to decline in the morning, and the transaction in the spot market on the first day after the festival is not good, the inquiry enthusiasm of downstream products enterprises is not high, the order level of some inquiry and inventory prices is generally low, and there are a small number of transactions below the futures price of 5800. On the whole, the performance of the spot market on the first day after the festival is weak, some product enterprises have not returned to work, the spot demand is less, and the social inventory of the spot market increases significantly during the holiday period. The digestion of goods sources is always difficult to show a better way to go to the warehouse. The weak fundamentals of PVC led to the poor performance of the two markets today, which closed at noon, with the main contracts of Chinese futures rising and falling differently. SC crude oil and container transportation index rose more than 4%, fibreboard, peanuts, low sulfur fuel oil (LU), apple rose more than 3%, Douer, Shanghai silver, pulp and fuel rose more than 2%. In terms of decline, soda ash fell by more than 6%, glass and coking coal by more than 4%, coke by more than 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai lead by more than 2%. As we said in yesterday's title, there is a clear divergence in commodities. On the whole, in the short term, the spot market of PVC is still in the low and narrow range.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 2.7	Price 2.19	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5896	5781	-115
	Average spot price in East China	5675	5600	-75
	Average spot price in South China	5660	5650	-10
	PVC2405 basis difference	-221	-181	40
	V2409 collection	6000	5902	-98
	V2405-2409 close	-104	-121	-17
	PP2405 collection	7459	7497	38
	Plastic L2405 collection	8220	8230	10
	V--PP basis difference	-1563	-1716	-153
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2324	-2449	-125

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 60.88, or 1.079%, to 5581.08 on February 19th. The PVC spot index of ethylene method was 5877.96, up 2.48%, with a range of 0.042%. The calcium carbide index decreased, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 293.88.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	2.8 warehouse orders	2.19 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,425	2,425	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	903	903	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,326	5,326	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,723	2,723	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,790	4,790	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,402	21,600	198
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,494	1,494	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,747	1,747	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		57,933	58,131	198
Total		57,933	58,131	198