Methanol: The spot price of methanol on the first day after the holiday was stable and slightly moved

On February 18, the methanol market price index was 2257.47, up 1.82% from the previous working day and 0.08% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on February 7:

China CFR 298-306 US dollars / ton, up 7 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 95-96 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR 347.5-348.5 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 267268euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2250 (0), North Route: 1980-2010 (0), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: 2275-2290 (35), Shanxi: 2200-2300 (2300), Port: 2650-2670 (50)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 280-380 (- 100amp 60), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 330-380 (- 50Uniqure 100), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 170-240 (- 40qpact Mueller 30), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, there are no futures guidelines in the methanol market, and the spot quotation in China is stable and small. During the Spring Festival holiday, most of the enterprises in the market run smoothly, and the inventory of some manufacturers increases slightly. In addition, the recovery of demand in the downstream market is relatively slow, and the overall turnover is average. Specifically, the market price arrangement and operation in the main producing areas, the quotation on the southern route revolves around 2030 yuan / ton, and the quotation on the northern line revolves around 1980-2010 yuan / ton. after the festival, the demand for deposit and storage of enterprises in the field has been narrowly reduced by some manufacturers today, but at present, the recovery speed of the overall demand downstream is slow, the demand side or follow-up is insufficient in the short term, and the supply pressure in the field is still large. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, was adjusted in a narrow range, with southern Shandong 2400 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, northern Shandong 2350-2390 yuan / ton. on the first day of returning from the festival, the market operators had a strong wait-and-see mood, and the overall trading volume of the market was limited. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the downstream demand follow-up situation. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2300-2400 yuan / ton today. At present, the downstream construction is slowly recovering, supply and demand is still in a state of imbalance, and Shanxi quotation is still in a narrow range adjustment. Today's quotation is 2200-2300 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, the overall trading activity in the market is relatively low, some manufacturers' inventory has accumulated, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong.

Port market: methanol futures are closed today. Within the month price shipment, rigid demand buying follow-up; long-term arbitrage negotiations, the basis is strong. The overall turnover is light. Taicang main port transaction price: 2 deal: 2650 deal 3 deal: base difference 0580 inch 85.

Future forecast: during the Spring Festival holiday, most of the devices in the Chinese market will run smoothly, and the inventory pressure of some manufacturers in the field will be prominent. although the 2 million-ton plant in Jiutai (Tuoxian) is about to stop, it has a short parking time and has little impact on the overall supply of the market. and most of the gas head devices in the southwest have returned to normal operation. in addition, on the first day after returning from the festival, there is a certain depot demand from some manufacturers in the main producing areas, and the overall supply in the Chinese market is abundant. However, at present, the recovery of downstream demand is relatively slow, the follow-up of the market demand side is slightly insufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the short-term Chinese market may appear. Generally speaking, the short-term methanol market price in China is expected to fall somewhat. However, in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro, coal prices, plant operation and downstream demand follow-up.