PVC: Social inventories accumulate, cost support weakens, and external markets are divided during the holidays

I. A brief introduction of China's PVC Market

During the long spring holiday in China, calcium carbide: the price of calcium carbide fell by 100-150 yuan / ton during the festival, which affected logistics and transportation during the Spring Festival. Calcium carbide enterprises shipped relatively slowly, and inventory increased. Spot market: after entering the holiday mode one after another on January 25 before the festival, the performance of the spot market in various regions is poor, continuing the state of having a price but not a market, there are not many offers from merchants on the first working day after the festival, and some traders have not yet returned to the market, in addition, futures have not opened yet, so the performance of the spot market is relatively calm. Only in some areas, spot prices are higher than before the festival, but there is no transaction support, most of the downstream has not yet started, the enthusiasm of inquiry in the spot market is limited, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is light.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

II. Highlights of major events during the holiday period

1. Hong Kong stocks rare 3 Lianyang, A50 Index Futures pull up

2. Big news from the Ministry of Housing and Construction! Nearly 5000 enterprises welcome the benefits. China will renovate more than 100000 kilometers of underground pipelines every year in the future, a person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Construction said recently. In 2024, China will vigorously promote the transformation of urban underground pipe networks, implement projects to enhance the capacity of urban drainage and waterlogging prevention, and further promote the construction of urban lifeline safety projects.

The new scale of social finance and RMB loans reached record highs in March and January.

4. Us inflation has not cooled as expected. The CPI announced in the United States on February 13th and the growth rate of PPI announced on February 16th were both higher than expected. In the United States, CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year in January, expected 2.9% in December, 3.4% in December; core CPI rose 3.9% year-on-year, expected 3.7%, and 3.9% in December; core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, 0.3% in December. The rise in housing prices is the most important reason. After the release of the data, the market withdrew expectations of the Fed's rate cut.

Israel launched a large-scale attack on Lebanon on Wednesday, February 14. Israeli officials say militants have launched a series of large-scale strikes into Lebanon after militants fired a series of rockets at an Israeli military base and a nearby city, killing one Israeli and injuring seven others. The escalation could undermine weeks of negotiations aimed at easing tensions in the region.

6. Us WTI crude oil futures are up more than 2 per cent this week, while Brent crude futures settlement prices are up about 1 per cent. There is a growing risk that the Israeli-Palestinian armed conflict will further spread into a wider conflict, supporting higher oil prices.

III. Outlook for the future

On the whole, although there are some differentiation changes in the outer disk during the holiday period, it may not have a good lasting impact on PVC. From the perspective of PVC fundamentals, the downward cost support of calcium carbide prices during the holiday period is weakened, and the starting load of PVC production enterprises during the holiday period is relatively stable, and basically at a high level, so the supply has increased, and the demand for downstream products enterprises is mostly on holiday. The demand for PVC is poor, and there is an obvious holiday accumulation phenomenon in the game between supply and demand, so there is still some pressure on the post-holiday spot market. In late February, the pre-festival PVC performance continued to be weak, on the basis of no preference for the fundamentals, the post-holiday market goods are still difficult to have a better performance. However, for the overall 05 contract and the market before May, we still have certain high expectations, in which the futures high expected 05 contract is placed in the range of 6200-6300, relative to the spot market price to follow. Therefore, in the short term, the two cities in the PVC period may still face the pressure of constantly confirming the bottom, but the medium-term performance may continue to rise by a small margin.