Methanol: Futures rebound after falling, spot market talks are limited

On February 6, the methanol market price index was 2,259.31, down 7.65 from yesterday and 0.34% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on February 5:

China's CFR 290-300 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton;
US FOB 95-96 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 347.5-348.5 USD/ton, flat;

European FOB 266.5-267.5 euros/ton, up 0.75 euros/ton.

Today's price summary:

Guanzhong: 2230-2250 (0), North Line:1980-2010 (0), Southern Shandong:2400-2420 (0), Henan:2220-2240 (0), Shanxi: 2150-2300 (0), Port:2550-2555 (-30)

Freight:

North Line-Northern Shandong 380-440 (0/0), South Line-Northern Shandong 380-480 (0/0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 210-270 (0/0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0/0)

Spot market: Today, methanol market prices were consolidated in a narrow range, and futures rebounded slightly. However, the overall negotiation atmosphere in the pre-holiday market was limited. The basis of the port spot market was stronger than yesterday, and overall trading was weak. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are consolidated and operated. The price for the southern line is around 2030 yuan/ton, and the price for the northern line is around 1,980 -2010 yuan/ton. At present, stocking in the downstream market has basically been completed, and most preliminary orders are currently being executed. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have been adjusted within a narrow range, with 2,400 - 2,410 yuan/ton in southern Shandong, maintaining yesterday's level and 2,470 - 2,500 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The stocking of goods in the downstream market has basically ended, and terminal factories have been suspended for holidays. The demand in the terminal market has performed generally, with just needs being the main focus. The market quotation in North China has been adjusted within a narrow range. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,350 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Demand is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. Most transactions in the region have maintained their current status. The price in Shanxi has been adjusted within a narrow range, and today's price has stabilized to 2,200 - 2,300 yuan/ton.

Port market: Today, methanol futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Replenishment was just needed within the month, and arbitrage shipments were mainly based on a slightly stronger basis; a small amount of unilateral shipments in the long term, and the basis stabilized. Transactions were slow. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot transaction: 2555-2565, basis 05+95/+100; 2 Transaction: 2560-2570, basis 05+95/+105; 3 Transaction: basis +65/+70

Market outlook forecast: At present, downstream and terminal operators are leaving the market one after another, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. Some orders are mainly implemented in the early stage of contract orders. Although some companies continue to quote and ship, there are few transactions. Traders and downstream have basically finished stocking, and the market has no price. The situation is relatively obvious. At present, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. However, in the later period, we need to pay close attention to macro and coal prices, on-site equipment operation and downstream pre-holiday stocking.