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Caustic soda: Spot prices have been adjusted sporadically, industry operators have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and futures prices fluctuate upward

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February 5, 2024, 3:56 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    February 5 SH2405 contract opening price: 2685, highest price: 2712, lowest price: 2668, position: 44877, settlement price: 2693, yesterday settlement: 2672, down: 21, closing price: 2698, daily trading volume: 28278 lots, precipitated capital: 872 million, capital outflow: 21.36 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

February fourth

February fifth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

736-784

736-784

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

710-810

710-810

0/0

-

Hebei

740-820

740-810

0/-10

Ex-factory price

South China

960-1080

960-1080

0/0

Can price

Shandong

700-770

700-770

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1005-1030

1005-1030

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

820-860

820-860

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2300-2400

2300-2400

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

830-850

830-850

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2400-2650

2400-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1160-1280

1160-1280

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1340-1360

1340-1360

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1160-1210

1160-1210

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2500-2550

2500-2550

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3150-3350

3100-3300

-50/-50

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2700-2850

2700-2850

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3200-3350

3200-3350

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1270-1350

1270-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

900-630

900-630

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

2700-2800

2700-2800

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:      caustic soda prices in China today are stable and small, the overall trading atmosphere is general, there are regional differences in trading, the market mentality is more cautious, the enthusiasm of most operators to enter the market is not high, mainly wait and see the market before the festival. Today, the operation of the liquid alkali market is general, the prices in some regions have been lowered, and the price adjustments in most regions are more cautious. From the point of view of the price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ionic membrane alkali has individually dropped by 10-20 yuan / ton, and the prices of other concentrations of alkali have almost remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. Supply in individual areas is relatively stable, but downstream demand performance is poor, overall procurement demand is weak, merchants reduce shipping prices to promote transactions, so the overall transaction prices in the local market have moved down. In most other areas, the supply and demand sides maintain the previous level, the performance of enterprise shipments is average, the downstream receiving situation remains stable, there are no factors guiding the market price trend in various regions, the mentality of operators is more cautious, and prices mostly maintain the previous level of operation. The upstream production enterprises individually adjust the ex-factory price, most manufacturers wait and see to stabilize the price, and the mentality is relatively cautious. Today, the operation of the tablet alkali market is relatively stable, the price center of gravity of manufacturers in various regions and market transactions have not changed significantly, and the overall performance of the market is stable. The pre-sale condition of the factory is normal, most of the devices run stably, and a few devices are overhauled. Downstream demand performance is weak, the market trading atmosphere is not good.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract shock uplink. Night trading price shock operation, did not see a big market, early price shock upward, to the highest point of the day after shock down, afternoon prices continue to fluctuate slightly. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2668-2712 throughout the day, with a price difference of 44. 05. the contract reduced its position by 1322 hands and has held 44877 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tdd-global data, China's caustic soda index fell by 0.191% to 2645.16, down 5.06%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Spot aspect: at present, the trend of the spot market of caustic soda is relatively stable, most of the caustic soda devices in the upstream are stable, and a few devices are overhauled, but according to the current situation, whether the equipment is overhauled or not can not be the key to price adjustment for the time being. it is understood that logistics companies are on holiday one after another, logistics vehicles are reduced, the speed of supply transportation slows down, traders also begin to take holidays one after another, and the overall market turnover is relatively light. The market is gradually falling into a stage where there is a price but no market. In addition, the transportation of dangerous chemicals during the Spring Festival holiday is prohibited from February 9 to February 18 in the Gregorian calendar.

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract shows an upward trend. Last Friday and early this week prices showed a positive trend, the next track support level worked. Market turnover: 14.7% more than short opening 13.8%, empty 18% vs. more than 16.2%, long and short parties close more. With the approach of the Spring Festival, the withdrawal of funds from the market is more obvious. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13,13,2) continues to diverge, and the KD line and MACD line at the daily level show a dead fork trend, but the KD line dead fork trend is obviously narrowed. In the short term, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is poor, and participants are not willing to bear too much changes in external factors during the holiday period. It is expected that short-term stock will continue to be reduced, and prices will fluctuate.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

February fourth

February fifth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

100-200

1-100

-99/-100

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

1-100

-100-1

-101/-99

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

-400-1

-400-1

0/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

50-200

-100-100

-150/-100

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on February 5, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 155.67, down 33.22, or 17.59%. China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: