Daily review of urea: Spring Festival advance orders are coming to an end and there is a small amount of market operations (February 5)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on February 5 was 2,256.82, an increase of 4.09 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.93%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR405 contract: 2114, the highest price: 2149, the lowest price: 2114, the settlement price: 2133, the closing price: 2137. The closing price increased by 34 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 1.62% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2114-2149; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 43; the 05 contract has increased its position by 1546 lots today, and the position held so far is 173,900 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market price rose slightly. Currently, the prices of various producing areas are mostly stable, and the prices of individual manufacturers have increased slightly and are in operation.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,190 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,070 - 2,280 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,170 - 2,240 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 2,350 - 2,400 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,190 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,240 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,210 - 2,220 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,230 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the factory's offers are stable and slightly consolidated. Currently, they are in the final stage of advance orders. The adjustment of factory quotations is limited. The factory mainly places pre-orders before the festival, and the overall willingness to adjust prices is not strong. In terms of the market, operators have gradually entered the vacation mode, and the overall market has remained stable, gradually entering a state of value-free market. In terms of supply, the current Nissan changes relatively little, the overall high level is stable, and the industry's operating rate remains at around 82%. On the demand side, downstream operators have left the market one after another, market demand is flat, and pre-holiday transactions are limited.

On the whole, as the year is approaching, downstream operators are leaving the market one after another on holidays, and there is a small amount of market operations. It is expected that the urea market price will remain stable in the short term.