Methanol: The methanol period is now weak and volatile. The market transaction atmosphere is general

On February 2nd, the methanol market price index was 22673.51, down 0.9 from yesterday and 0.04 per cent month-on-month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on February 1:

China CFR 290-297 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 95-96 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR 346.5-247.5 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 264-265EUR / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2230-2250 (0), North Route: 1980-2010 (0), Lunan: 2400-2410 (- 30), Henan: 2240-2270 (- 40), Shanxi: 2200-2300 (0), Port: 25402545 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 360-440 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 360-480 (0mp 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 200-260 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price range of methanol market is adjusted. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, terminal factories are shutting down one after another for holidays, the performance of terminal market demand is general, and the local market in China is affected by rain and snow weather, and the transportation of some road sections is restricted. Some manufacturers in the field still have a certain demand for inventory, giving priority to profit delivery. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation for the southern route around 2030 yuan / ton and the northern line around 1980-2010 yuan / ton. at present, the preparation of goods in the downstream market is basically over, the transaction of new orders before the festival is not high, and most of the pre-orders are carried out. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, is adjusted in a narrow range, with 2400-2410 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 30 yuan / ton in the low end and 2470-2500 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. At present, downstream stock has basically entered the end, and it is difficult for demand to improve significantly in the short term. Most transactions in the region maintain the current state. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2350-2400 yuan / ton today. At present, the number of transport vehicles in the field may be gradually reduced, the freight price may be expected to be raised, the downstream market replenishment is active, and the quotation in Shanxi is adjusted in a narrow range. Today's quotation is stable to 2200-2300 yuan / ton.

Port market: methanol futures are highly volatile today. Spot rigid demand negotiations; long-term arbitrage shipments, arbitrage and unilateral receiving simultaneous follow-up, the basis is high. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2560-2580, base difference 05: 90, base difference: 2580-2585, base difference: 05: 105, transaction price: 2585, base difference: 05: 100, transaction price: 2535-2570, basis difference: 05: 75: 90, transaction: 2510-2540, basis difference: 05: 60, 65.

The future forecast: in the near future, there will be equipment overhaul and restart in the Chinese market, some air head devices in the southwest have been ignited, and construction in the region has increased. The 1.2 million-ton device in Huayu in Shanxi has been ignited, and the 300000-ton device in Shilin has been short stopped. and in the last week before the Spring Festival next week, the upstream manufacturers are still in stock demand, coupled with the coming of the year, the market capacity may decline, in addition, the local snowfall weather affects the spot circulation in the Chinese market. This will suppress the market price to a certain extent. With the early stock preparation, the downstream replenishment has basically entered the end, the market demand may continue to weaken, under the influence of the contradiction between supply and demand, the short-term Chinese market price may continue to operate weakly, and the port market may continue to operate at a high level under the influence of the shortage of spot circulation. Overall, it is expected that the short-term methanol market may still continue the regional trend, but in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro, coal prices, plant operation and downstream pre-festival stock.