PVC: The futures price closed at the positive column with a longer upper shadow line. The market reduced its position and left the market, and the spot was sorted out in a narrow range.

89,040

February 2, 2024, 4:22 PM

PVC futures analysis: February 2 V2405 contract opening price: 5825, highest price: 5844, lowest price: 5788, position: 795880, settlement price: 5811, yesterday settlement: 5907, down: 96, daily trading volume: 665150 lots, precipitated capital: 3.173 billion, capital outflow: 91.73 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	February first	February second	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5460-5530	5470-5550	10/20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5550-5630	5560-5640	10/10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5620-5680	5620-5680	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5450-5600	5450-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5560-5600	5560-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5490-5600	5490-5600	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price range is mainly sorted out slightly, the spot market gradually has price but no market. Valuation comparison: North China rose 10-20 yuan / ton, East China rose 10 yuan / ton, South China, Northeast China, Central China, Southwest China stable. Most of the ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises remain stable, coinciding with no obvious price adjustment on Friday, there are not many contracts signed, production enterprises mainly produce inventory, and some enterprises have pre-sale. When the futures are arranged in a narrow range, the price offered by traders in all regions is basically the same as that of yesterday, and the basis has not changed much, including 05 contracts in East China-(180-270), 05 contracts in South China-(150-210), 05 contracts in North China-(520-560), 05 contracts in Southwest China-(250). On the whole, there are few spot offers in the market, and there is a small amount of room for negotiation in some real orders, but the spot purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches is low, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night trading opening price narrow finishing, the end of the day slightly upward. Futures prices rose further after the start of morning trading, but the overall increase was relatively small, and then fell to give up some of the gains. Afternoon prices continue to fluctuate in a narrow range until the end. 2405 contracts range from 5788 to 5844 throughout the day, with a price difference of 56. 05. The contract reduced its position by 24484 hands and has held 779821 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5924, with 79780 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures first of all the volatility range is still narrow, only 56 points within the range to reduce the position Yu more than 24000 hands, on the one hand, with the passage of time gradually shorten the trading day, on the other hand, in the test low range is not broken, some funds happen to reduce positions on Friday to leave the market. The technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three rails under the rail turned down, the price closed in the upper shadow line longer Yang Zhu, the low point Lei total yesterday. The KD line and MACD line at the daily line level show a dead-forked trend. We still maintain our previous point of view, but we believe that under the current circumstances, no matter how empty we are to participate carefully, we will continue to observe the performance in the range of 5750-5800.

Spot aspect: futures reduced positions to leave the market part of the funds to wait and see, and learned from the spot market, middlemen also began to have a holiday, spot market prices and one price coexist, the two modes of transactions remain light, point price offers are mainly point forward supply, spot transactions gradually slow down. And learned from the upstream enterprises, the current quotation of the next generation of contracts are also not many, the overall spot market began to enter the rhythm of price without market. On the outer disk, international oil prices fell more than as the market speculated on the false news that Israel had agreed to a cease-fire in Gaza. A Qatari official said Hamas was positive about the cease-fire proposals it had received, but had not yet responded to them. On the whole, the news in the current two cities is relatively poor, the PVC spot market is gradually stagnant, and prices remain unchanged.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 2.1	Price 2.2	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5798	5812	14
	Average spot price in East China	5590	5600	10
	Average spot price in South China	5650	5650	0
	PVC2405 basis difference	-208	-212	-4
	V2409 collection	5914	5924	10
	V2405-2409 close	-116	-112	4
	PP2405 collection	7345	7322	-23
	Plastic L2405 collection	8126	8077	-49
	V--PP basis difference	-1547	-1510	37
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2328	-2265	63

China PVC Index: according to Tudou data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index rose 7.58, or 0.136%, to 5580.4 on February 2. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 5877.54, down 0%, the range is 0%, the calcium carbide method index is up, the ethylene method index is down, and the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index spread is 297.14.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	2.1 Warehouse orders	2.2 Warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,425	2,425	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	903	903	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,546	5,546	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,723	2,723	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,790	4,790	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,382	21,382	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,494	1,494	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,387	1,387	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		57,773	57,773	0
Total		57,773	57,773	0