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Caustic soda: Spot prices are stable and wait and see, while futures prices are weak and volatile. Currently, there is no major market in both markets

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February 2, 2024, 4:18 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    February 2 SH2405 contract opening price: 2670, highest price: 2688, lowest price: 2655, position: 46199, settlement price: 2672, yesterday settlement: 2692, down: 20, closing price: 2685, daily trading volume: 36003 lots, precipitated capital: 893 million, capital outflow: 29.84 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

February first

February second

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

720-752

720-752

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

710-810

710-810

0/0

-

Hebei

740-820

740-820

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

960-1080

960-1080

0/0

Can price

Shandong

710-780

710-780

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1005-1030

1005-1030

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

820-860

820-860

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2300-2400

2300-2400

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

830-850

830-850

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2400-2650

2400-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1160-1280

1160-1280

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1340-1360

1340-1360

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1160-1210

1160-1210

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2500-2550

2500-2550

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3150-3350

3150-3350

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2700-2850

2700-2850

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3200-3350

3200-3350

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1270-1350

1270-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

900-630

900-630

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

2700-2800

2700-2800

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Spot analysis of caustic soda:      today the price of caustic soda in China has not been significantly adjusted, most of the devices on the market operate stably, the downstream demand maintains rigid demand, and the change in supply and demand is not obvious. Near the end of the week, operators are more cautious about price adjustment. Today, the overall liquid alkali market has not fluctuated. From the point of view of price adjustment in various regional markets, the prices of 32% ionic membrane alkali, 50% ionic membrane alkali and other concentrations of alkali have almost remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. The performance of the market transaction atmosphere is general, with the reduction of production in the lower reaches of some areas, and the overall reduction of rigid demand procurement. The enterprise inventory pressure is not big, the market mentality is cautious as a whole. In most areas, the supply and demand sides maintain the previous level, the performance of enterprise shipments is average, the downstream receiving situation remains stable, there are no factors guiding the market price trend in various regions, operators mainly wait and see the market, and prices mostly maintain the previous level of operation. A small number of upstream production enterprises adjust the ex-factory price, most manufacturers wait and see to stabilize the price, and the mentality is relatively cautious. Today, the operation of most tablet alkali devices in the tablet alkali market is stable, the pre-sale situation of the manufacturers is normal, the price center of gravity of the transaction in each regional market has not changed, the overall trading atmosphere is relatively general, and most operators wait and see the market.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract concussion operation, the whole day did not see a large operation market. The night market fluctuated downward, rising first and then falling in the morning, and began to rebound slightly after the opening price fell in the afternoon. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2655-2688 throughout the day, with a price difference of 33. 55. the contract reduced its position by 1812 hands, and so far it has held 46199 positions.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tdd-global data, China's caustic soda index was 2647.16 on February 2, up 0%, and China's caustic soda index was stable.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Spot aspect: the Spring Festival is approaching, the operation of regional markets is relatively stable, the mentality of operators is cautious, and there is little willingness to adjust prices. In the later period, there are maintenance plans in some areas before the festival, which have a certain support for local prices, and the operation of caustic soda devices in most other areas is stable. Some temporary parking devices in the northwest are expected to resume tomorrow, and there are regional differences in the supply side. The overall operation of downstream demand is weak and stable, downstream stock tends to end, and most of them maintain rigid demand procurement. On the whole, there are regional differences between supply and demand in the market, and it is expected that the short-term market will adjust prices flexibly, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in most markets is heavier.

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract shock operation, although the overall overall trend is still weak, but the price below there is a small support, did not fall below the rail support, the lower support is effective, the current low at 2655. Trading situation: more than 13% versus 14%, 19.2% vs. 17.3%, more than short positions. Disk position decreased significantly, approaching the Spring Festival, participants are not willing to bear too much changes in external factors during the holiday period. At the technical level, the three-track openings of the Bolin belt (13,13,2) diverge, and the KD lines and MACD lines at the daily level show a dead-forked trend. In the short term, there is support or shock operation under the caustic soda SH2405 contract.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

February first

February second

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

150-250

150-250

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

150-250

150-250

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

50-100

-150-100

-200/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

250-350

250-350

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 289 on February 2, down 11, or 3.67%, while China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: