PVC: The futures price fell below the integer mark, returned to the low range, increased positions downward, and the spot market continued to weaken

87,293

January 31, 2024, 4:47 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 31 V2405 contract opening price: 5825, highest price: 5844, lowest price: 5788, position: 795880, settlement price: 5811, yesterday settlement: 5907, down: 96, daily trading volume: 730792 lots, precipitated capital: 3.23 billion, capital inflow: 194 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 1.30	Price 1.31	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5510-5570	5480-5530	-30/-40	Send to cash remittance
East China	5590-5680	5550-5630	-40/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5650-5700	5620-5680	-30/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5450-5650	5450-5600	0/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5560-5610	5560-5600	0/-10	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5510-5650	5490-5600	-50/-50	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price is still weak, the spot market regions are mainly downside. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 30-40 yuan / ton in North China, 40-50 yuan / ton in East China, 20-30 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 10 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprise factory price part of the reduction of 30-50 yuan / ton, including off-site warehouse prices, some enterprises continue to stabilize prices wait and see. With the weakening of the futures price, the price quotation of traders in various regions was slightly reduced, and after the futures price went down, the basis offer showed a price advantage, and the basis narrowed slightly. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(180-270), South China 05 contract-(150-210), North 05 contract-(520-560), Southwest 05 contract-(250). Downstream procurement spot enthusiasm is low, the spot market price inquiry is not much, the overall trading atmosphere is slightly light, some real orders have a small amount of room for negotiation, terminal products enterprises began to have a holiday one after another.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night trading opening narrow range shock finishing, the futures price is slightly weaker. After the start of morning trading, the futures price fell below the 5800 mark, and then the futures price in the afternoon session of the whole day iteration was in a state of low and small range. 2405 contracts range from 5788 to 5844 throughout the day, with a spread of 56. 05 contracts with an increase of 52282 positions and 795880 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5914, with 78727 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the futures of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract showed a significant increase in positions, with a substantial increase of more than 52000 positions in the whole trading day, with 27.1% short opening compared with 24.3% empty opening. The market short returns, the low of the futures price slightly breaks through the lower track position, the technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) opens, the dead fork of the KD line at the daily level expands, and the distance between the two lines of the MACD line shortens rapidly. Under the current time node, the spot market began to gradually enter the stage of price and non-market, and the stock price went down again, aggravating the partial air atmosphere before the festival. In the short term, futures prices may continue to test the low range, observing the performance of the 5750-5800 range.

Spot: & the downward price of the two cities in nbsp; futures triggered part of the point of transaction. From the point of view of the time node, during the period of continuous testing of the low range, some merchants hoarded goods, and the current two cities re-tested the low price range. On the one hand, it gives the spot market the opportunity to stock before the festival, on the other hand, the decline of the two cities makes the pre-festival slightly empty, the low range may affect the post-festival performance. Trading in the spot market is getting lighter and lighter, with the gradual holiday of product enterprises, the demand is weaker and weaker, the actual transaction in the spot market is not good and there is some room for negotiation. We still maintain the previous view that the pre-holiday spot market may be underperformed. On the outer disk, international oil prices closed at their highest level in nearly two months and rose for the second week in a row, as optimistic economic growth in the United States and China's economic stimulus measures boosted demand expectations. at the same time, concerns about supply in the Middle East have also supported the oil market. On the whole, the spot market may continue to adjust mainly on a small scale in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 1.30	Price 1.31	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5833	5798	-35
	Average spot price in East China	5635	5590	-45
	Average spot price in South China	5675	5650	-25
	PVC2405 basis difference	-198	-208	-10
	V2409 collection	5950	5914	-36
	V2405-2409 close	-117	-116	1
	PP2405 collection	7456	7440	-16
	Plastic L2405 collection	8264	8224	-40
	V--PP basis difference	-1623	-1642	-19
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2431	-2426	5

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC on January 31 was 5576.38, down 31.48, or 0.561%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5877.48, down 17.98, or 0.305%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 301.1.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	1.30 warehouse orders	1.31 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,425	2,425	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	903	903	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,546	5,546	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,723	2,723	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,658	4,658	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,382	21,382	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,494	1,494	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,387	1,387	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		57,641	57,641	0
Total		57,641	57,641	0