Daily review of urea: Factory quotations continue to increase, new orders are significantly reduced (January 31)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on January 31 was 2,260.45, an increase of 0.68 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.76%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2115, the highest price is 2115, the lowest price is 2076, the settlement price is 2090, and the closing price is 49% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 2.30% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2076-2115; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 108; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 2065 lots today, and so far, it has held 175,000 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices rose slightly, and corporate quotations were stable and minor. Under the support of waiting, the current price has been consolidated and operated in small ranges.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,190 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,040 - 2,280 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,180 - 2,250 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,350 - 2,400 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,190 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,250 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,210 - 2,220 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,230 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, some manufacturers have successively completed advance orders during the Spring Festival, and the current quotations are stable and slightly increased; some manufacturers with insufficient advance receipts continue to maintain low orders, and prices are mostly stable. Today's number of new orders is lower than in previous days, making it difficult for prices to continue to rise. In terms of the market, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the market transaction atmosphere is relatively good, and goods continue to follow up. With the slight increase in prices in recent days, the market follow-up pace has slowed down, the mentality has turned cautious, and the current trading atmosphere has weakened compared with the previous period. In terms of supply, early parking devices have been resumed one after another, and the industry's supply has gradually increased. However, due to the recent large number of goods in the market and the impact of spot supply is less than the volume of orders, the spot supply has become slightly tight. On the demand side, recent demand has followed up with many agricultural shipments. Currently, most of them have completed market purchases. Under the influence of rising prices, the sentiment has turned weak and downward.

On the whole, the current urea market has a relatively high number of orders and tight spot supply in the market, which supports the upward trend of the market. It is expected that the urea market price will stabilize and the market will operate firmly in a short period of time.