PVC: Futures prices fell sharply in the afternoon, and the decline in the late session continued to widen, and the spot was slightly weak.

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January 30, 2024, 4:53 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 30th V2405 contract opening price: 5930, highest price: 5954, lowest price: 5830, position: 743598, settlement price: 5907, yesterday settlement: 5940, down: 33, daily trading volume: 715024 lots, precipitated capital: 3.036 billion, capital outflow: 6.55 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 1.29	Price 1.30	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5510-5570	5510-5570	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5650-5700	5590-5680	-60/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5650-5720	5650-5700	0/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5450-5650	5450-5650	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5560-5610	5560-5610	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5510-5650	5510-5650	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price is slightly weak, the overall market atmosphere is not good. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is down 20-60 yuan / ton, South China is down 20 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central China and Southwest China are stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises are mainly wait-and-see, and the price has not changed obviously. With the passage of time, the contract signing becomes lighter and some enterprises bid for the last time before the festival. Futures weak downward, traders in various regions a small reduction in part of the price offer, there is not much spot supply in the market. After the futures price goes down, the spot is mainly based on the basis offer, and the basis does not change much, of which the East China basis offer 05 contract-(250-300), the South China 05 contract-(200-250), the North 05 contract-(550-600), the Southwest 05 contract-(300). The spot market gradually has price but no market, the terminal inquiry is limited, the enthusiasm of purchasing spot is low, and the transaction is rare.

From the perspective of futures: & the opening price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract is mainly arranged in a narrow range, and the fluctuation direction of the futures price is not clear. After the start of morning trading, the futures price even rose slightly, the highest point is still the same as yesterday, but the afternoon price fell sharply, the late decline did not stop. 2405 contracts range from 5830 to 5954 throughout the day, with a spread of 124. 05 contracts with an increase of 11820 positions and 743598 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5950, with 76351 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the fluctuation range of nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures price has changed from the previous narrow range, the range has expanded obviously, the fluctuation of futures price has fallen deeply from the high point to the upper rail position throughout the lower rail position, and the low point tries to test the lower rail position. First of all, the narrow fluctuation of the recent price leads to the obvious narrowing of the third track of the Bolin belt, and then the expansion of today's fluctuation range leads to the change of the technical closing line, the trend of dead fork of the KD line at the daily level is obvious, the white line of the MA line turns around, and the support of the MACD combined line is not effective. There is a turning trend under the middle rail in the Bolin belt (13,13,2). And the market shows an increase in the position price downward short open pressure, the short-term point of view or continue to test the low range, observe the volatility in the range of 5800-5850, the lower support level 5800 direction.

Spot: in yesterday's forecast we mentioned that the current futures market is slightly separated, the futures market is still active and the range of today's range is expanded, and the participation in long and short is relatively high, but the spot market is still not active even in the downward price market. At present, the PVC supply and demand port still maintains the off-season state, the supply is temporarily stable upstream PVC production enterprise equipment load starts normally, but the spot demand is more weak, the seasonal accumulation is obvious. In the outer disk, international oil prices fell from a two-month high hit last week as demand concerns in China's weak property sector led traders to reassess the supply risks posed by escalating conflicts in the Middle East. A Hong Kong court has issued a winding-up order to China's Evergrande, a move that has undermined investor confidence in the Chinese economy. On the whole, in the short term, the spot market of PVC may gradually have a price but no market, with a narrow adjustment.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 1.29	Price 1.30	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5940	5833	-107
	Average spot price in East China	5675	5635	-40
	Average spot price in South China	5685	5675	-10
	PVC2405 basis difference	-265	-198	67
	V2409 collection	6051	5950	-101
	V2405-2409 close	-111	-117	-6
	PP2405 collection	7519	7456	-63
	Plastic L2405 collection	8314	8264	-50
	V--PP basis difference	-1579	-1623	-44
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2374	-2431	-57

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 14.14, or 0.252%, to 5607.86 on January 30th. The PVC spot index of ethylene method is 5895.46, up 0%, the range of 0%, the index of calcium carbide method is down, the index of ethylene method is stable, and the price difference between ethylene method and calcium carbide method is 287.6.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	1.29 warehouse orders	1.30 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,425	2,425	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	903	903	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,546	5,546	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,723	2,723	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,658	4,658	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,266	21,382	116
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,494	1,494	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,387	1,387	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		57,525	57,641	116
Total		57,525	57,641	116