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Caustic soda: The ex-factory price of flake caustic soda has been increased, the price of liquid caustic soda has been mixed, and the futures price has fluctuated downward

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January 30, 2024, 3:49 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    January 30th SH2405 contract opening price: 2722, highest price: 2736, lowest price: 2690, position: 49117, settlement price: 2719, yesterday settlement: 2727, down: 8, closing price: 2697, daily trading volume: 45015 lots, precipitated capital: 954 million, capital inflow: 17.81 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

January twenty _ ninth

January thirtieth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

720-752

720-752

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

710-810

710-810

0/0

-

Hebei

740-820

740-820

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

960-1080

960-1080

0/0

Can price

Shandong

710-790

710-780

0/-10

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1005-1030

1005-1030

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

810-850

820-860

10/10

Delivery price

Tianjin

2300-2400

2300-2400

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

830-850

830-850

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2400-2650

2400-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1260-1320

1260-1320

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1340-1360

1340-1360

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1180-1230

1150-1230

-30/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2500-2780

2500-2780

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3100-3300

3100-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2650-2800

2700-2850

50/50

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3200-3350

3200-3350

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1270-1350

1270-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

900-960

900-960

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

2700-2800

2700-2800

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Spot analysis of caustic soda:      today China's caustic soda market continues to show differential operation, price adjustment in a few areas, mixed prices of liquid caustic soda, and partial price rise of flake caustic soda. The situation of enterprise shipments is general, the downstream demand does not change much, the transaction atmosphere is maintained in the early stage, and the market mentality in most areas is cautious. Today, the price of liquid alkali market continues to show regional adjustment, and prices in some regions have changed slightly, but the direction of adjustment is different. From the point of view of price adjustment in various regions, 32% of ionic membrane alkali has individually increased by 10 yuan / ton. Individual high-end prices have dropped 10 yuan / ton, 50% ionic membrane alkali has dropped 30 yuan / ton, and the prices of other concentrations of alkali have almost remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. The prices of low-concentration alkali and high-concentration alkali in individual areas fell at the same time, mainly because the operation of the local liquid alkali plant was stable, the supply of goods on the market was adequate, and the enthusiasm of receiving goods downstream was general, and the price center of local transaction moved downwards; the performance of market transactions in individual areas was OK, and there was some support for local prices, so enterprises tentatively raised the shipping price. In other areas, both supply and demand parties maintain the previous level, the performance of enterprise shipments is average, the downstream receiving situation remains stable, and there are no factors guiding the market price trend in various regions. Operators mainly wait and see the market, and prices mostly maintain the previous level. A small number of upstream production enterprises adjust the ex-factory price, most manufacturers wait and see to stabilize the price, and the mentality is relatively cautious. Today, the operation of most tablet alkali devices in the tablet alkali market is stable, and the pre-sale situation of manufacturers is normal. A small number of manufacturers in Northwest China have announced that the new order price has been raised mainly this week, which has boosted the transaction price in some areas, and the price center of gravity of tablet alkali transaction in Wuhai market has moved up. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is relatively general, and most operators wait and see the market.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract continues to fall. The opening price of night trading rose slightly and then fell back and fluctuated. In the morning, the concussion was obvious. In the afternoon, the price fell again after a small rebound, and then dived in late afternoon. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2690-2736 throughout the day, with a price gap of 46 and a position increase of 1360 hands, with 49117 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index was 2656.31 on January 30, up 6.21%, or 0.234%. China's caustic soda index rose.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Spot: most of the supply-side caustic soda devices run stably, chlor-alkali enterprises in some areas have maintenance conditions, which gives a certain boost to local caustic soda prices, and most regional markets lack upward power; downstream demand mostly maintains a stable trend, but the demand situation in different regions has inventory replenishment or production reduction, and there are differences as a whole, coupled with the current approach to the Spring Festival holiday, most operators are more cautious in adjusting prices. It is expected that prices in various regions of the short-term caustic soda market will be adjusted flexibly. In addition, from the point of view of the weather conditions, there is a wide range of snowfall in the near future, which may have a certain impact on the transportation situation, so we should pay attention to the circulation of goods in the later stage.

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract prices fell continuously, from late January to now, the overall price showed a trend of 6 consecutive overcast, the overall operation of the market is weak. Market turnover: 16% more than short opening 19.4%, empty 16% versus multi-flat 16.8%, short entry is obvious. The technical level shows that the opening of the third track of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) tends to narrow; the KD line at the daily line level shows a dead fork trend, the intra-day dead fork trend continues to expand, and the MACD line also shows a dead fork trend. In the short term, the caustic soda SH2405 contract may continue to fall.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

January twenty _ ninth

January thirtieth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

100-200

150-250

50/50

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

100-200

150-250

50/50

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

50-100

50-100

0/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

1-100

1-100

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

200-300

250-350

50/50

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index rose 33.33%, or 13.33%, to 283.33 on January 30th. China's liquid chlorine index rose.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: