Daily review of urea: Low market orders are better, current spot supply is tight (January 30)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on January 30 was 2,259.77, an increase of 12.91 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.66%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2137, the highest price is 2153, the lowest price is 2100, the settlement price is 2131, and the closing price is 2115. The closing price is 26% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.21% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2100-2153; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 75; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 6825 lots today, and so far, the position is 177,100 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continued to increase slightly, companies 'new orders increased, supply of goods was tight, and low-end quotations rose slightly.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,190 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,070 - 2,280 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,190 - 2,240 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,350 - 2,400 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,200 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,210 - 2,220 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,200 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the market trading atmosphere has improved recently. Companies have received better new orders, and most of their quotations have been slightly upward. Some companies have not yet closed their orders during the Spring Festival and continue to receive orders at low prices. The quotations have remained stable. The current low-end market prices are gradually moving towards the high-end. Close, it is expected that market prices will still have an upward trend in the short term, but the overall room for growth is limited. In terms of the market, the market situation is stable and rising, the overall trading atmosphere is weak and stable, and the downstream is cautious and waiting for low prices to follow up. In terms of supply, maintenance companies continue to recover one after another, and supply has gradually increased. Companies have better orders, and spot supplies have been tight in a short period of time, and market supply has been tight. On the demand side, downstream companies have appropriately followed up. As the end of the year approaches, downstream factories have stopped their operations one after another. The start of compound fertilizer factories has declined. Farmers need appropriate replenishment, and the demand side is operating weakly.

On the whole, the current urea market orders are relatively good, and although the supply is gradually increasing, the current spot supply in the market is tight and has good support. It is expected that the urea market price will stabilize and increase slightly in a short period of time, but the overall upward trend will be limited.