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Caustic soda: The price has been adjusted slightly, the market trend has diverged slightly, and the futures price has continued to fall.

90,550
January 29, 2024, 5:09 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    January 29th SH2405 contract opening price: 2715, highest price: 2748, lowest price: 2707, position: 47757, settlement price: 2727, yesterday settlement: 2741, down: 14, closing price: 2722, daily trading volume: 41677 lots, precipitated capital: 936 million, capital outflow: 30.12 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

January twenty _ sixth

January 28th

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

720-752

720-752

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

710-810

710-810

0/0

-

Hebei

730-810

740-820

10/10

Ex-factory price

South China

920-1080

960-1080

40/0

Can price

Shandong

710-790

710-790

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1005-1030

1005-1030

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

810-850

810-850

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2300-2400

2300-2400

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

830-850

830-850

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2400-2650

2400-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1260-1320

1260-1320

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1340-1360

1340-1360

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1220-1290

1180-1230

-40/-30

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2500-2780

2500-2780

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3100-3300

3100-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2650-2800

2650-2800

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3200-3350

3200-3350

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1270-1350

1270-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

900-960

900-960

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

2700-2800

2700-2800

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:      caustic soda prices in China today sporadic adjustment, market transaction atmosphere there are regional differences, a few areas of liquid alkali prices flexible adjustment, flake alkali prices maintain a stable trend, the mentality is more cautious. Today, prices are adjusted in a few areas of the liquid alkali market, and the trend is slightly differentiated, with prices rising and falling each other. From the perspective of price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ionic membrane alkali separately rose 10-40 yuan / ton, 50% of the ionic membrane alkali fell 30-40 yuan / ton, and the prices of other concentrations of alkali almost remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. First of all, the operation of enterprise installations in individual areas is stable, the overall supply is relatively sufficient, and the local market prices mainly fall slightly; the enthusiasm of downstream demand in some areas is OK, and there is a reduction in liquid alkali production in the region, and the inventory of chlor-alkali enterprises is at a low level to support the rise of local prices; South China has devices for maintenance and maintenance, and the demand downstream is mild, and the market transaction price rises as a whole. In other areas, both supply and demand parties maintain the previous level, the performance of enterprise shipments is average, the downstream receiving situation remains stable, and there are no factors guiding the market price trend in various regions. Operators mainly wait and see the market, and prices mostly maintain the previous level. A small number of upstream production enterprises adjust the ex-factory price, most manufacturers wait and see to stabilize the price, and the mentality is relatively cautious. Today's tablet alkali market at the beginning of the week, the operation of each regional market is relatively stable, the price of tablet alkali in Shandong has not changed obviously, and the center of gravity of market transaction price has not been adjusted either. Most of the factory devices operate stably, the supply of goods on the market is relatively stable, the downstream demand performance is general, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is general. The business people at the beginning of the week are cautious and wait and see more about the market.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract high continues to move down. Prices fluctuated upwards in night trading, continued to rise in the late morning session, fell after today's highest point, continued to decline in the afternoon, and rebounded slightly in late afternoon trading. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2707-2748 throughout the day, with a price difference of 41 and a reduction of 1537 positions in the contract, with 47757 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tdd-global data, China's caustic soda index was 2650.11 on January 29th, up 3.32%, or 0.125%. China's caustic soda index rose.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Spot aspect: the operation of the caustic soda market at the beginning of the week is relatively stable, the market in most areas is mainly wait-and-see, and the operation of entering the market is more cautious. The operation of the chlor-alkali plant at the supply side is stable, the supply of goods on the market is relatively sufficient, the maintenance of devices in some areas can boost the local price, and the inventory pressure of some enterprises is not large enough to support the market, and the supply of goods in most areas is sufficient. General support to the market. This week's downstream pre-festival stock situation will enter the final stage, later or only a small number of sporadic replenishment, most of them maintain rigid demand procurement. On the whole, it is expected that short-term caustic soda prices will continue to show regional flexible adjustment. In addition, the transportation of dangerous chemicals during the Spring Festival holiday is prohibited from February 9 to February 18 in the Gregorian calendar.

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract high continues to fall, today's low at 2707, there is a small support below, did not fall below the 2700 mark. Trading situation: 14.7% more than empty 15.5%, 17.1% flat compared to 18.1%, near the Spring Festival, the disk position decreased, and long and short parties closed more, the funds began to withdraw gradually, and are not willing to bear too much changes in the outer disk during the holiday. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) is upward; the KD line at the daily line level shows a dead fork trend, and the intra-day dead fork trend continues to expand, and the MACD line also shows a dead fork trend. Short-term caustic soda SH2405 contract above the pressure is still high, or there is a risk of further downside.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

January twenty _ sixth

January twenty _ ninth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

-100-50

50-100

150/50

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

1-100

1-100

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index rose 5.56%, or 2.27%, to 250 on January 29th. China's liquid chlorine index rose.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: