Daily Review of Urea: The increase in low-end transactions in the market increased slightly at low prices (January 29)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on January 29 was 2,246.86, an increase of 9.09 from last Friday, a month-on-month increase of 0.41% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.08%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR405 contract: 2111, the highest price: 2169, the lowest price: 2110, the settlement price: 2141, the closing price: 2133. The closing price increased by 48 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 2.30% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 2110-2169; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 37; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 7685 lots today, and so far, it has held 183,900 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices have been consolidated upwards, with low market orders closing better, and the market has improved compared with the previous period.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,190 - 2,250 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,070 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,150 - 2,230 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,330 - 2,400 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,180 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,170 - 2,180 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,200 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most factories have not yet completed advance receipts during the Spring Festival and continue to concentrate on advance orders. Some factories have better orders after price cuts. Supported by pending orders, manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices. Currently, they have a slight increase in quotations to control orders. In terms of the market, the market continues to operate weakly and steadily, the overall trading atmosphere is relatively weak, and downstream low prices are cautiously waiting and following up. In terms of supply, gas-head enterprises have successively resumed production, supply has steadily rebounded, daily production has gradually increased, and industry supply pressure has gradually emerged. On the demand side, most operators follow up on dips. Before the Spring Festival, downstream demand was just weakening, and the delivery of finished compound fertilizers was poor. The operating rates of most factories remained low, and their enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials declined.

On the whole, the current increase in transactions at the low-end of the urea market, the prices of companies with low-end quotations have increased slightly, and the high-end quotations have shown signs of gradually moving closer to the low-end. It is expected that the urea market will operate firmly in a short period of time, and prices will be stable and minor.