Methanol: Port spot is relatively strong, China's spot is adjusted within a narrow range

On January 26th, the methanol market price index was 2265.55, up 1.26% from yesterday and 0.06% higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on January 24:

China CFR 288-295USD / ton, Ping
Us FOB 97-98 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR 349.5-350.5 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 269.5-270.5 euros / ton, down 2.75 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2250 (0), North Route: 2000-2020 (0), Lunan: 2380-2400 (- 20), Henan: 2330-2340 (10), Shanxi: 2200-2270 (0), Port: 25102550 (- 5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 310-380 (- 10max 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 310-350 (10max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 170-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price continues the regional trend, the Chinese market is arranged in a narrow range, the port spot quotation is arranged at a high level, and supported by the tight supply of negotiable goods in the region and the high operation of the futures disk, the basis performance is strong. China's downstream manufacturers' raw material inventory is mostly running at a high level, the pre-holiday stock atmosphere is mostly dull, and trading is dominated by maintaining rigid demand. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are operating stably temporarily, with the quotation for the southern route around 2030 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2000-2010 yuan / ton. recently, some of the temporary stopping devices in the field have returned to normal operation, and the market supply has increased steadily. In addition, there are fewer return vehicles in the field, and the inventory of some manufacturers has increased slightly compared with the previous period. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are adjusted in a narrow range, with 2380-2430 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2400-2410 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Futures market volatility has fallen, the mentality of market operators is general, coupled with the current poor performance of downstream market demand, the overall trading atmosphere is general. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2300-2350 yuan / ton today, which is maintained in the early stage, under the consumption of downstream rigid demand, there is no pressure on the inventory of manufacturers, and the quotation in Shanxi is adjusted in a narrow range. Today's quotation is stable to 2200-2270 yuan / ton. Huayu parking maintenance, regional supply has been reduced, but at present downstream market demand follows up a bit, market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures consolidation today. There are a small amount of quotations in stock, and the base difference falls within the month. Forward part of unilateral shipments, arbitrage buying mainly, the basis is slightly weak, trading partial stalemate. The overall turnover is light. Spot transaction: 2550, base difference 05pm 115 position 1 deal: 2510-2530, base difference 05pm 80pm 100x 2th deal: 2490-2495, base spread 05x60max 65x 3 deal: 2470-2485, base difference 0540max 45.

The future forecast: recently, some air head devices in southwest China have been ignited and restarted. Chuanwei 770000 tons, Jiuyuan 500000 tons, Cabelle 850000 tons and other devices have been ignited and restarted, and the construction in the region has increased compared with the previous period. In the follow-up, other gas-limited parking devices in southwest China will also return one after another, and the spot supply in the field will remain abundant, but the 1.2 million-ton methanol plant in Shanxi Huayu plans to stop for overhaul and hedge against each other. Spot market supply performance is general, downstream pre-festival stock has basically entered the end, market turnover is expected to be difficult to significantly improve, while manufacturers still have a certain shipping demand, market supply and demand is not good support for the time being, it is expected that next week the market may still continue the regional trend, but in the later stage we need to pay close attention to macro, coal prices, on-site equipment operation and downstream pre-festival stock situation.