Methanol: Futures continue to increase spot prices within a narrow range

On January 24th, the methanol market price index was 2263.3, up 4.4 from the previous working day and 0.19% month-on-month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on January 23:

China CFR 288-295USD / ton, Ping
Us FOB 97-98 cents per gallon, up 2 cents per gallon
Southeast Asia CFR 349.5-350.5 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 272.25-273.25 euros / ton, up 5 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2250 (0), North Line: 2000-2020 (10), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: 2310-2335 (10), Shanxi: 2200-2240 (0), Port: 2515 (35)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 300-370 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-320 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 170-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: recently, the price in the Chinese market fluctuates in a narrow range. With some early parking devices in southwest China resuming normal operation and local resource supply increasing, the spot in the market is still loose, but the demand in the downstream market is general and the market transaction atmosphere is limited. However, the quotation in the port area operates at a high level driven by tight supply and strong futures. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are operating stably temporarily, with quotations on the southern route around 2050 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2000-2020 yuan / ton. at present, some manufacturers have smooth pre-festival storage and low inventory, but there is still a certain demand for shipments. downstream rigid demand is the main procurement. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer, are adjusted in a narrow range, with southern Shandong at 2400 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's northern Shandong at 2400-2420 yuan / ton. it is OK to be boosted by higher futures, and most enterprise inventories fall to the middle and low levels, which has a certain support for the mentality of the industry. North China market quotation narrow adjustment, Hebei quotation 2300-2330 yuan / ton today, to maintain the early stage, the current factory inventory pressure is not big, factory quotation adjustment range is limited. Shanxi region quotation narrow adjustment, today's quotation stable to 2200-2250 yuan / ton, methanol main futures disk operation is strong, but at present the downstream manufacturers in the region raw material inventory has accumulated, maintain rigid demand procurement, transaction volume is difficult.

Port market: methanol futures consolidation today. Spot sellers are scarce, small order rigid demand to catch up with high transactions; morning paper orders on the side of high shipments, arbitrage, basis weakening; afternoon talks stalemate. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: spot order: 2570-2600 position 1 deal: 2515, base difference 05x85 position 90position 2 transaction: 2510-2515, basis difference 05x75 position 2 transaction: 2490-2505, basis difference 0565pm 70position 3 transaction: 2480, basis difference 055050.

The future forecast: recently, some air head devices in southwest China have been ignited and restarted. Chuanwei 770000 tons, Jiuyuan 500000 tons, Cabelle 850000 tons and other devices have been ignited and restarted, and the construction in the region has increased compared with the previous period. In the follow-up, other gas-restricted parking devices in southwest China will also return one after another, and the spot supply in the field will remain abundant. With the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, some traditional downstream factories have entered the holiday state one after another. The overall demand for methanol is limited, and at present, most of the raw material stocks in downstream factories in some regions are seasonally high, and it is expected to maintain rigid demand in the lower reaches before the Spring Festival. generally speaking, short-term methanol market prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, but in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to macro, coal prices, plant operation and downstream pre-festival stock.