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Caustic soda: The price of new orders for flake caustic soda has been raised, the price of liquid caustic soda has continued to rise slightly, and the futures price has declined somewhat.

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January 23, 2024, 3:42 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    January 23 SH2405 contract opening price: 2820, highest price: 2829, lowest price: 2782, position: 51169, settlement price: 2805, yesterday settlement: 2810, down: 5, closing price: 2795, daily trading volume: 54255 lots, precipitated capital: 1.03 billion, capital outflow: 60.8 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

January 22nd

January twenty _ third

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

720-752

720-752

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

710-800

710-800

0/0

-

Hebei

740-800

740-800

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

900-1080

920-1080

20/0

Can price

Shandong

710-780

710-790

0/10

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1005-1030

1005-1030

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

810-850

810-850

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2300-2400

2300-2400

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

800-840

830-850

30/10

Ex-factory price

Henan

2400-2650

2400-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1260-1320

1260-1320

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1340-1360

1340-1360

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1220-1300

1220-1290

0/-10

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2450-2780

2450-2780

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3100-3300

3100-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2600-2750

2650-2800

50/50

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3200-3350

3200-3350

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1270-1350

1270-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

900-960

900-960

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

2700-2800

2700-2800

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Spot analysis of caustic soda:      caustic soda prices continue to rise in some parts of China today, liquid caustic soda prices are slightly different, high concentration caustic soda prices in some areas are slightly down, new unit prices in northwest China are up, and the market transaction atmosphere shows regional differences. Today, the price of the liquid alkali market has been adjusted in a small number, and a stable trend has been maintained in most areas, with a wait-and-see mentality. From the perspective of price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ion-exchange membrane alkali has risen by 10-30 yuan per ton, and 50% of the ion-exchange membrane alkali has individually dropped 10 yuan / ton. The prices of other concentrations of alkali have almost remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. First of all, the price of low-concentration alkali in some areas continues to rise, mainly supported by the shortage of local liquid alkali and tight supply; the downstream demand in some areas is OK, and the price is rising. While the price of high concentration alkali in some areas decreased slightly, with the rise of the previous price, the downstream was resistant to the high price supply, and the transaction price of high concentration alkali market in some areas decreased. In other areas, both supply and demand parties maintain the previous level, the performance of enterprise shipments is average, the downstream receiving situation remains stable, and there are no factors guiding the market price trend in various regions. Operators mainly wait and see the market, and prices mostly maintain the previous level. A small number of upstream production enterprises adjust the ex-factory price, most manufacturers wait and see to stabilize the price, and the mentality is relatively cautious. Today, the price of tablet alkali in the northwest part of the new single price has been raised, the market transaction price has not been significantly adjusted today, and the quotation in Shandong is in stable operation. Most of the tablet caustic soda devices operate stably, the pre-sale situation of the manufacturers is normal, the market transaction price in various regions remains stable for the time being, the operators wait and see the market, and the market transaction situation maintains the previous level.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract downward. The price of the night market fluctuated downwards, and the diving was obvious in the late afternoon. The opening price rose rapidly in early trading, but the rise was weak, showing a concussive downward trend again, and rebounded slightly in late trading; afternoon prices did not see a big market, the overall weak shock. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2782-2829 throughout the day, with a price difference of 47 and a reduction of 2541 positions, with 51169 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index was 2646.79 on January 23, up 12.98%, or 0.493%. China's caustic soda index rose.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Spot: today's spot prices continue to show a small upward trend in some areas, in line with our expectations yesterday. At present, after the continuous rise in the caustic soda market, the price rise in various regions is relatively weak. First of all, from the point of view of the supply side, the operation of most devices is stable, the inventory of enterprises is in the minority, the overall inventory pressure is not great, and enterprises are mainly active shipments. Downstream demand mainly maintains rigid demand, and alumina plants are planned to stop production due to insufficient supply of raw material bauxite, but recently announced that the shutdown plan has been postponed to before the Spring Festival, which is good for caustic soda, but it is bad for local caustic soda prices in the later stage. With the increase in the price of caustic soda at this stage, there is resistance in the lower reaches of some areas, and the transaction of high-concentration caustic soda is weak. Some regions take the lead in lowering the transaction price today, and the price of high-concentration caustic soda in later or some areas may mainly follow suit. Prices in other areas may be adjusted flexibly.

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract down today, mainly reducing positions. Market turnover: 14.5% more than empty 13.5%, empty 16% versus more than 22.4%. The technical level shows that the upper rail, middle rail and lower rail opening of the Bolin belt (13,13,2) are upward, and the opening of the lower rail is downward; the daily KD line and MACD line show a golden fork trend, but the KD line golden fork trend has narrowed. From the MA combination line, the futures price is above the MA combination line. At present, there is pressure for futures prices to rise, with support below, and short-term caustic soda SH2405 contracts or concussion are expected to run.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

January 22nd

January twenty _ third

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

50-100

1-50

-49/-50

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

1-100

1-100

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

400-500

400-500

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on January 23, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 327.78, down 5.56, or 1.67%. China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: