Methanol: The methanol period is now adjusted within a narrow range and the market transaction volume is generally high

On January 19th, the methanol market price index was 2250.37, down 3.64 from yesterday, and 0.16% lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on January 18:

China CFR 284-290 USD / ton, Ping
Us FOB 94-95 cents per gallon, up 2 cents per gallon
Southeast Asia CFR 349.5-350.5 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 268.25-269.25 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2160-2200 (0), North Route: 2030-2040 (- 20), Lunan: 2380 (0), Henan: 2290-2300 (10), Shanxi: 2200-2370 (0), Port: 2440-2450 (35)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 270-370 (0ax 10), South Route-North Shandong 280-320 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 170-200 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices are arranged in a narrow range. At present, some of the pre-maintenance equipment in the field have returned to normal operation. In addition, the load of some load-reducing devices in Shaanxi, Xinjiang and Shandong has been increased, and the supply of spot resources in the field is still loose. Specifically, market prices in the main producing areas move steadily, with quotations on the southern route around 2080 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2030-2040 yuan / ton, some devices continue to operate at full load, and the supply side of the market increases narrowly, although the overall inventory of manufacturers is mostly at a low level. there is no inventory pressure for a short time, but there is still demand for shipments before the Spring Festival, and the positive support on the market is limited. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, is adjusted in a narrow range, with 2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2410-2420 yuan / ton in the north of Shandong province. the stock of raw materials in the lower reaches is in a high position, maintaining rigid demand and buying mainly, and the trading atmosphere in the market weakens. The market quotation in North China is adjusted narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2300-2330 yuan / ton today. At present, the inventory of manufacturers in the region is at a low level, and there is some support on the supply side, but the follow-up of downstream market demand is limited and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Shanxi region quotation narrow adjustment, today's quotation stable to 2200-2270 yuan / ton, downstream manufacturers accept goods cautiously, the market transaction atmosphere is limited.

Port market: methanol futures are weaker today. Month-based arbitrage shipments, afternoon buying follow-up, strong basis; long-term high price shipments, buy arbitrage, basis stabilized. The overall turnover is light. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / small order: 2440-2445, base difference 05 "80max" 90 position 1 deal: 2420-2435, base spread 05 "75pm 80 market price 2 transaction: 2420-2430, base difference 05x8max 70.

In the future, it is predicted that in the Chinese market, with the restart of Jiutai (Tuoxian), Shaanxi Weihua, Xinjiang Xinye and other devices, the regional market operation may increase, but some methanol plants may be reduced due to the reduction of coke gas in Shanxi area, but in the second ten days of the month, with the end of the gas restriction in the southwest, the early stop gas head devices may gradually return to normal, and the storage at the supply end is expected to increase. And at present, the inventory in the downstream market is in the middle and high level, so it is difficult to have obvious volume on the short-term demand side. At present, the inventory of manufacturers in the main producing areas remains low, but there is still shipping demand before the Spring Festival, and the current downstream demand still maintains the previous level, and it is expected that the methanol market price will decline narrowly in the short term, but in the later stage, we still need to pay close attention to the macro and coal prices, the operation of the plant in the field and the stock preparation situation downstream before the festival.