Daily Review of Urea: Weather affects factory shipments, market sentiment is more wait and see (January 17)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on January 17 was 2,330.59, a decrease of 2.86 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.12%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.49%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2080, the highest price is 2085, the lowest price is 2033, the settlement price is 2053, and the closing price is 2044. The closing price is 40% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.92% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2033-2085; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 216; the 05 contract has increased its position by 9032 lots today, with 184,300 lots held so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices fell slightly, with the overall stability and low. In the early stage, agricultural demand shipments slowed down due to the impact of snowfall, and prices remained stable.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,320 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,080 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have stabilized at 2,230 - 2,310 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,400 - 2,430 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,220 - 2,420 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,390 - 2,430 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,230 - 2,240 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,800 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most manufacturers have recently received better orders at low prices. With the support of waiting, the current ex-factory prices have remained stable. Some factories have shipped under pressure, and their quotations have continued to decline slightly to collect orders. In terms of the market, due to the impact of snowfall weather, the shipment and transportation of factories in some regions were blocked. In the early stage, agricultural demand for goods slowed down slightly, and the market follow-up was mainly based on wait-and-see. In terms of supply, supply is currently slowly improving. Some early parking gas head devices in southwest regions will be restored in the latter part of the year, and Nissan will steadily increase, which will have a negative impact on supply. On the demand side, downstream industry and agriculture remain in need of follow-up, and their purchasing sentiments are cautious, with most of them following up on sporadic small orders.

On the whole, the current urea market is blocked by weather conditions, downstream follow-up has slowed down, and there is a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to be stable in the short term.