Methanol: Chinese market prices have risen sharply and futures have consolidated after falling back

On January 16th, the methanol market price index was 2258.84, up 20.36 from yesterday, or 0.91% higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on January 15:

China CFR 287-290 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 92-93 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR 349.5-350.5 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 270.25-271.25 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2160-2200 (30), North Route: 2050-2100 (0), Lunan: 2380 (30), Henan: 2280-2295 (20), Shanxi: 2200-2270 (60), Port: 2415-2455 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-300 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-290 (0amp 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol in the Chinese market fluctuates upward, and the futures market fluctuates in the range. At present, the market quotations in the main producing areas are fluctuated under the support of little pressure, and some areas are affected by snowfall, and transportation is restricted. As a result, the current negotiable resources on the market are limited, and the supply side is favorable to support the willingness of some production enterprises to keep their prices up. Specifically, market prices in the main production areas have been raised narrowly, with quotations on the southern route around 2080 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2050-2100 yuan / ton. during the week, due to the unsmooth restart of individual devices, the supply side recovered less than expected, and the overall shipments of manufacturers in the early production areas were smooth, and enterprise inventories were at a low level, supporting the upward rise of the market center of gravity to a certain extent. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, is adjusted in a narrow range, with 2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2410-2440 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Driven by higher prices in the northwest and Shanxi, prices in the region have risen slightly, and there are phased replenishment operations downstream, and the market transaction atmosphere is OK. North China market quotation narrow adjustment, Hebei quotation 2220-2260 yuan / ton today, the traditional downstream market demand is difficult to improve, the market price driving force is not strong. Shanxi region quotation narrow adjustment, today's quotation 2200-2270 yuan / ton, most manufacturers inventory pressure, more keep the price mentality.

Port market: today, methanol futures fell back after consolidation. Spot a small amount of rigid demand, sell for goods. In the morning, there was an increase in unilateral and arbitrage shipments of paper goods, cautious delivery, obvious weakening of the basis and narrowing of the price difference between months; afternoon trading decreased and the basis stabilized. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2420-2430, base difference 05: 65 position 1 transaction: 2405-2445, base difference 05: 60 pound 80 transaction price: 2405-2435, base difference 05: 55 lead 70cross 2 transaction : 2405-2425, the basis difference is 0558, the base difference is 0558, and the basis difference is 0550. deal: 2395-2415, basis 0550.

Future forecast: the Chinese market, Jiutai 2 million-ton plant restart, Shaanxi Weihua 400000-ton plant is now gradually restarted, the regional market supply or storage is expected to increase, but at present manufacturers still have a certain price mentality under the support of small inventory pressure. in the later stage, we still need to pay close attention to the operation of the device in the field. On the demand side, the performance of the downstream market demand is general, the operating rate of the olefin market has declined in a narrow range, the methanol procurement volume has been reduced, and the traditional downstream raw material inventory is relatively high, and the subsequent methanol procurement enthusiasm or general, the market lacks a sustained driving force. At present, some areas of China are affected by snowfall weather, transportation may be affected to a certain extent, and the basic performance of methanol itself is general, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may show a regional trend. however, we need to pay close attention to the impact of snowfall on market transportation in the later stage.