Methanol: China's supply support is improving, and the methanol period is now turbulent and upward

On January 15, the methanol market price index was 2238.48, up 11.61 from the previous working day and 0.52% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on January 12:

China CFR 275-287 US dollars / ton, up 4 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 92-93 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon
Southeast Asia CFR 349.5-350.5 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton

European FOB 270.25-271.25 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2130-2190 (0), North Route: 2052100 (60), Lunan: 2350-2360 (0), Henan: 2260-2280 (20), Shanxi: 2140-2220 (0), Port: 24052420 (10)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 230-300 (0ax 20), South Line-North Shandong 250-300 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 130-200 (0ax 20), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is adjusted in a narrow range, the futures market is fluctuated upward, the price in the port spot market is raised along with the market, the price in the Chinese market is arranged in a narrow range, and the market price in the main producing areas is actively pushed up under the support of little supply pressure. downstream and traders can take delivery enthusiasm, the inventory of production enterprises is mostly low, and the trading atmosphere is good. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been raised narrowly, with the quotation for the southern route around 2030 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2052100 yuan / ton. recently, the 2 million-ton methanol plant in Inner Mongolia has continued to stop, which has a certain support for the mentality of the industry. after the new price of the manufacturer was issued, the transaction was good. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are adjusted in a narrow range, with southern Shandong 2350-2360 yuan / ton, low-end stable, and northern Shandong 2390 yuan / ton. the futures market is rising to boost the market, and most enterprise inventories in the region maintain medium-and low-level. At the beginning of the week, the wait-and-see mood of manufacturers is obvious, the market turnover is general, and pay attention to tomorrow's market bidding. The market quotation in North China is adjusted narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2220-2260 yuan / ton today. At present, the inventory of manufacturers in the region is at a low level, and there is some support on the supply side, but the follow-up of downstream market demand is limited and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Shanxi region quotation narrow adjustment, today's quotation stable to 2140-2220 yuan / ton, the early week in the field wait-and-see mood is strong.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded slightly today. Spot rigid demand negotiation, offer limited. Arbitrage buying within the month to follow up actively, price delivery; long-term part of the unilateral high, the overall basis is strong, the monthly price difference narrowed, transactions are active. Taicang main port transaction price spot transaction price: 2450-2455, base difference 05 "85 prime 90 position 1 deal: 2415-2440, base spread 05" 70 prime market 80 position 1 transaction: 2415-2445, base spread 05 "60 prime 75 position 2 transaction: 2410-2445, base difference 05" 60 prime 75 position 3 transaction: 2410-2415, base difference 05 "65.

Future forecast: in the Chinese market, the recent restart of some devices in the main production areas is not smooth, and the local market supply is still in a state of parking, and there is still some favorable support in the local market supply, and with the smooth shipment of the early manufacturers and the support of little supply pressure, the manufacturers' price-raising mentality is obvious, but starting from the second ten days of the month, the air head equipment in the southwest region is expected to restart, and the market supply in the region may increase, and with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday. The upstream manufacturers also have a certain depot demand, the Chinese market supply performance may still be abundant, the downstream market demand performance is general, the olefin market operating rate has declined narrowly, the methanol procurement has been reduced, and the recovery of demand in the traditional downstream market is limited, and the demand side performance is poor. At present, the basic performance of methanol itself is general, and the cost side of methanol support is limited, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may show a regional trend, but in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.