China Urea Price Index:
According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on January 15 was 2,340.14, a decrease of 9.68 from last Friday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.41%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.12%.
Urea futures market:
Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2035, the highest price is 2083, the lowest price is 2030, the settlement price is 2062, and the closing price is 2076. The closing price has increased by 28 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 1.37% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2030-2083; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 164; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 4518 lots today, and so far, it has held 181,000 lots.
Spot market analysis:
Today, China's urea market prices continue to operate in a weak position, market demand is weak, the number of follow-up is limited, and prices are deadlocked.
Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,350 - 2,410 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,090 - 2,410 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,220 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,400 - 2,430 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,220 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,390 - 2,480 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,250 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,800 yuan/ton.
Market outlook forecast:
In terms of factories, manufacturers have generally followed up on new orders. As orders to be issued gradually decrease, some manufacturers continue to test their quotations in order to accept new orders, and market prices have stabilized and dropped slightly. In terms of the market, the market atmosphere continues to be cautious, with most operators waiting and seeing. On the supply side, early gas head maintenance companies have resumed work one after another, coupled with the recent recovery of temporarily malfunctioning devices, Nissan has shown an upward trend, market supply will gradually increase, and urea prices will be under upward pressure. On the demand side, agricultural demand continues to reserve appropriate amounts of low-cost reserves, and the overall enthusiasm for procurement is not high. Recently, agriculture in Jiangsu and Anhui regions has shown signs of starting, and agricultural demand has boosted slightly; the construction and upgrading of downstream compound fertilizer factories is still slow, the mentality is tired, and the labor needs remain weak. operation.
On the whole, the current urea market is insufficient. Companies are cutting prices and taking orders. Downstream purchases are still cautious. It is expected that the urea market will be weak and deadlocked in a short period of time, and prices will continue to maintain a large stability and small decline.
