1. Analysis of China's soda ash market
This week, China's soda ash market continues to be weak and mainly downward. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China is between 2,300 - 2,550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,600 - 2,750 yuan/ton. Early maintenance companies have resumed production, the supply of soda ash has increased, and the industry has started to remain at a high level; due to the continuous decline in soda ash prices, company shipping pressure has increased, and both light and heavy soda stocks have increased, among which the increase in light soda soda is relatively large; The pressure of market competition is high, and companies continue to reduce prices and ship goods. The overall inventory pressure of most companies is not great, and the inventory of some companies is at a high level; downstream demand is average, prices have been continuously lowered. Companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and most of them maintain just needs, and in the short term. The intention to stock goods is temporarily low, and the soda ash market is operating weakly and steadily.
Forecast for next week: soda ash supply will remain high, with some maintenance plans, and the overall impact will be small; the market downturn will lead to greater pressure on companies to receive orders at high prices, and the prices of new orders will be adjusted, resulting in high price competition pressure; downstream demand will be weak and stable, and in the short term Affected by continuous price reductions, the purchase volume is not expected to increase much for the time being. However, as the end of the year approaches, the intention to prepare goods in the second half of the month may gradually increase, and logistics and transportation will soon be limited. The price of soda ash may gradually stop falling in the later period.
2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions
Unit: yuan/ton
areas |
specifications |
January 4 |
on January 11 |
rise and fall |
previous month |
Northeast China |
light soda ash |
2750 |
2600 |
-150 |
-5.45% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2825 |
2725 |
-100 |
-3.54% |
|
in North China |
light soda ash |
2650 |
2500 |
-150 |
-5.66% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2775 |
2650 |
-125 |
-4.50% |
|
East China |
light soda ash |
2700 |
2525 |
-175 |
-6.48% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2800 |
2625 |
-175 |
-6.25% |
|
central China |
light soda ash |
2650 |
2375 |
-275 |
-10.38% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2725 |
2525 |
-200 |
-7.34% |
|
South China |
light soda ash |
2925 |
2750 |
-175 |
-5.98% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3000 |
2850 |
-150 |
-5.00% |
|
southwestern region |
light soda ash |
2825 |
2450 |
-375 |
-13.27% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2850 |
2675 |
-175 |
-6.14% |
|
northwestern region |
light soda ash |
2550 |
2175 |
-375 |
-14.71% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2600 |
2225 |
-375 |
-14.42% |
3. Soda ash process profit statement
As of January 11 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 1085 yuan/ton, down 281 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 776 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton from the previous week.
production process |
January 4 |
on January 11 |
Weekly ups and downs |
rise and fall |
combined alkali method |
1366 |
1085 |
-281 |
-20.57% |
ammonia-soda process |
870 |
776 |
-94 |
-10.80% |
4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises
This week, the soda ash industry started at 89.0%, an increase of 4.34% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 695,000 tons.
Equipment maintenance list of soda ash enterprises on January 11, 2024 |
|||
process |
enterprise name |
production capacity |
device condition |
combined alkali method |
Fujian Yaolong |
40 |
Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined |
Huainan Debang |
60 |
On August 17, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined. |
|
Henan Junhua |
60 |
Starting from January 5, the company's equipment will be repaired for 3 days |
|
chlor-alkali process |
Qinghai Fantou |
140 |
On October 28, the company's equipment was reduced and repaired, and the recovery time was to be determined |
Kunlun Jianye |
150 |
On October 28, the company's equipment was reduced and repaired, and the recovery time was to be determined |
5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory
The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 430,000 tons, compared with 370,500 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 59,500 tons, an increase of 13.84%.