Methanol: The main contract lightens its position and rebounds. The methanol market is running in turmoil

On January 12, the methanol market price index was 2226.84, up 1.3% from yesterday and 0.06% higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on January 11:

China CFR 281-283USD / ton, Ping
Us FOB 94-95 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon
Southeast Asia CFR 346.5-347.5 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 284.25-285.25 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2130-2190 (0), North Route: 1990-2000 (- 30), Lunan: 2350-2360 (0), Henan: 2240-2260 (0), Shanxi: 2140-2190 (0), Port: 24052420 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-300 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-300 (0ax 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-180 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price is adjusted in a narrow range, the futures market rebounds at a low level, and the port spot price trend is relatively strong. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is temporarily stable, with the quotation on the southern line around 2030 yuan / ton and the northern line around 1990-2000 yuan / ton. with the restart of the previous maintenance equipment, the market supply has increased, and the overall supply in the region is abundant. Although the inventory of most of the northwest manufacturers has fallen to a low level, manufacturers still give priority to shipments on the eve of the Spring Festival, and in the case of downstream rigid demand replenishment, enterprises may have the operation of making profits and quick sales. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are adjusted in a narrow range, with southern Shandong 2350-2360 yuan / ton, low-end stable, northern Shandong 2320-2350 yuan / ton, futures rising to boost the market, and enterprise inventories in the region mostly maintain middle and low levels, but the start-up performance in the lower reaches is mediocre, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is general. The market quotation in North China is adjusted narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2220-2260 yuan / ton today, 10 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. At present, the inventory of manufacturers in the region is at a low level, and there is some support on the supply side, but the environmental protection inspection in Hebei region has been carried out again. Traditional downstream and terminal construction have been reduced slightly. Shanxi region quotation narrow adjustment, today's quotation stable to 2140-2220 yuan / ton, the current supply side in the region there is no good news boost, strong wait-and-see mood.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded slightly after consolidation today. Spot a small amount of rigid demand. Long-term unilateral high shipments increased, arbitrage buy, the basis is slightly weak; afternoon trading stalemate. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2415-2420, basis 05: 65: 1, basis: 2405-2415, basis: 05: 60: 1: 2395-2405, basis: 05: 50: 60: 2, basis: 2405-2415, basis: 05: 55: 65: 3: 2410-2415, basis: 05: 60: 65.

Future forecast: with the restart and stable operation of the parking device in the early stage, the market supply in the region is abundant, but under the influence of the off-season of consumption and the general profit performance in the downstream market, the performance of terminal market demand is poor, and near the weekend, the overall trading atmosphere in the Chinese market is general, and the cautious mood of the industry remains. At present, the coal price at the raw material end is low and volatile, and the cost side is generally supported by methanol. And at present, the fundamental support of methanol itself is poor, and it is expected that the short-term low price of methanol market will mainly fluctuate, but in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.