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Caustic soda: Spot prices have stabilized and moved slightly, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, and futures prices have risen

89,696
January 12, 2024, 4:11 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    January 12 SH2405 contract opening price: 2689, highest price: 2733, lowest price: 2673, spread: 60, position: 58216, increase: 61, settlement price: 2701, yesterday settlement: 2675, up: 26, closing price: 2709, daily trading volume: 76302 hands, precipitated capital: 1.135 billion, capital inflow: 11.24 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

January eleventh

January 12th

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

720-752

720-752

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

710-780

720-780

0/0

-

Hebei

730-750

730-750

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

910-1050

910-1050

0/0

Can price

Shandong

700-770

700-760

0/-10

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

980-1020

980-1020

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

770-850

770-850

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2260-2350

2300-2350

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

800-840

800-840

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2400-2650

2400-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1120-1180

1120-1180

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1240-1240

1240-1240

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1120-1190

1120-1190

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2440-2550

2500-2550

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3100-3300

3100-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2600-2750

2600-2750

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3200-3300

3200-3300

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1210-1350

1210-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

870-930

900-960

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

2700-2800

2700-2800

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Spot analysis of caustic soda:      China's caustic soda market has moved steadily today, transaction prices in most areas have not been significantly adjusted, market supply and demand has not changed much, near the weekend, the mentality of operators is more cautious, liquid caustic soda prices have fallen slightly, and tablet soda prices have maintained their previous levels. Today, the trend of the liquid alkali market is large and stable, prices in some regions have been slightly adjusted, and there has been no obvious change in the price range in most areas. most operators hold a wait-and-see mood. From the point of view of price adjustment in various regions, 32% of ionic membrane alkali has individually dropped 10 yuan / ton. The prices of other concentrations of alkali have remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. There is little change on both sides of supply and demand in various regions, the performance of enterprise shipments is general, the situation of receiving goods downstream remains stable, there are no factors guiding the market price trend in various regions, operators mainly wait and see the market, and prices mostly maintain the previous level of operation. Most of the upstream production enterprises wait and see to stabilize the price, the mentality is relatively cautious, and the prices of individual manufacturers are slightly adjusted. Today, the tablet alkali market maintains a stable operation, manufacturers' quotations remain stable, and the pre-sale situation is normal. The performance of the market transaction is general, the start of the enterprise plant is stable, the supply side changes little, the downstream demand performance is poor, the merchant shipping price has not been significantly adjusted, and the regional price is mainly arranged horizontally.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract continues to show an upward trend. Night trading weak volatility, early trading concussion upward, to the highest point of the day, after the end of the day fell slightly, afternoon prices a small shock operation. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2673-2733 throughout the day, with a price difference of 60 points and an increase of 61 positions, with 58216 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tdd-global data, on January 12, China's caustic soda index was 2568.78, down 0%, and China's caustic soda index was stable.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Spot aspect: near the weekend, the market mentality of each region is more cautious, mainly wait and see the market. At present, the price in various regions of the caustic soda market is mainly adjusted flexibly, the supply and demand side almost maintains stable operation, most devices start stably, the supply on the market is sufficient, the downstream demand is light and stable, and there is reserve demand in the later period of the Spring Festival holidays. the expectation of a small increase in demand or stock is expected to support the market to a certain extent; the start-up of the overall downstream industry does not change much, maintaining the rhythm of rigid demand procurement. At present, with the decline of PVC and caustic soda prices of the two major products of chlor-alkali industry, chlor-alkali enterprises have greater production cost pressure, enterprises have a certain price mentality, it is expected that the price may still fall to a certain extent in the later stage, but the space will not be very large.

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract showed an upward trend again today, the lower track support level worked. Market turnover: 18.4% more than empty 14.5%, empty 17% versus 17.5%. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) is downward; the KD line and MACD line at the daily level show a dead fork trend, and the KD line dead fork trend is obviously narrowed. However, the pressure above is still obvious, there is still pressure for further upward futures prices, and the short-term focus on the mid-rail pressure level.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

January eleventh

January 12th

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

1-200

1-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

1-200

1-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

-150-100

-100-100

50/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

50-150

50-150

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

200-300

1-100

-199/-200

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on January 12, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 205.56, down 17.78, or 7.96%. China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: