PVC: Futures price fluctuations are now a narrow spell, with a cross star on the negative column, and the spot price rises slightly flexibly

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January 12, 2024, 4:03 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 12 V2405 contract opening price: 5834, highest price: 5848, lowest price: 5801, position: 892893, settlement price: 5825, yesterday settlement: 5798, up: 27, daily trading volume: 615624 lots, precipitated capital: 3.642 billion, capital outflow: 67.05 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 1.11	Price 1.12	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5460-5490	5460-5510	0/20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5560-5610	5600-5650	40/40	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5590-5650	5610-5680	20/30	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5650	5500-5650	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5540-5580	5540-5580	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5470-5570	5470-5570	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly, prices in different regions are slightly flexible. Compared with the valuation, it rose 20 yuan / ton in North China, 40 yuan / ton in East China, 20-30 yuan / ton in South China, and stable in Northeast, Central China and Southwest China. The ex-factory price part of the upstream PVC production enterprises continued to be stable, and some enterprises began to tentatively increase the ex-factory price by 20-30-50 yuan / ton, with different increases. The futures price is still mainly adjusted in a narrow range, with prices offered by traders in various regions of the spot market rising slightly, part of the price closed at one time, the basis offer part weakening slightly, and the supply of spot prices without price advantage for the time being. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(200-250), South China 05 contract-(150-220), North 05 contract-(500-550), Southwest 05 contract-(250). On Friday, although prices rose slightly in various regions, the overall trading was not good, and the ordering price was on the low side, so the pricing enthusiasm was poor.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night trading price down slightly, but the overall decline is not big. After the beginning of morning trading, the futures price rose slightly, but the increase was also small. The afternoon price was mainly arranged in a narrow range, and today's futures price fluctuated in a very narrow range. 2405 contracts range from 5801 to 5848 throughout the day, with a price difference of 47. 05. The position of the contract has been reduced by 16751 hands, and 892893 positions have been held so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5930, with 67567 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures showed extremely narrow fluctuations, coinciding with a certain reduction in positions on Friday. In terms of trading, the short position was 24.7% higher than 23.4%, and some short orders took profits. On the one hand, the volatility of futures prices is narrowed, on the one hand, there is a lack of direction guidance at both the supply level and the fundamental level, and secondly, there is a lack of participation in the current point in the absence of external stimulation. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) means to narrow, and the fluctuation of the future price may come to an end in the short term. We still maintain the previous judgment, the short-term price operation still has some pressure, continue to observe the performance in the range of 5750-5800.

Spot: spot market on Friday, although the upstream production enterprises tentatively raised factory prices, but did not get more contract transactions, traders in various regions also reported that the delivery rhythm was not good, and the purchase order level of rigid demand of product enterprises was generally low. On the one hand, the volatility of futures prices, no matter how short, needs more factors to guide, but under the current time node, the upward support is obviously insufficient and the restriction of demand is more obvious. Therefore, the two cities have repeatedly tested the low level. In the outer disk, the price of the international crude oil futures market rose, supported by the geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Iran has seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman amid fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East. However, US inflation strengthened again in December 2023, limiting the rise in oil prices. On the whole, the PVC spot market in the short term is still difficult to get rid of the trend of narrow consolidation.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 1.11	Price 1.12	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5825	5827	2
	Average spot price in East China	5585	5625	40
	Average spot price in South China	5620	5645	25
	PVC2405 basis difference	-240	-202	38
	V2409 collection	5928	5930	2
	V2405-2409 close	-103	-103	0
	PP2405 collection	7247	7266	19
	Plastic L2405 collection	8007	8027	20
	V--PP basis difference	-1422	-1439	-17
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2182	-2200	-18

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC was 5579.96 on January 12, up 19.52, or 0.351%. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5845.82, up 6.48, or 0.111%, the calcium carbide method index rose, the ethylene method index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 265.86.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	1.11 warehouse orders	1.12 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,245	2,245	0
	Guangzhou materials	963	963	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,282	1,282	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,315	1,737	422
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,195	1,253	58
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	120	484	364
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,546	5,546	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,793	2,793	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,853	4,853	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,369	21,427	58
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,537	3,684	147
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	570	639	69
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,387	1,387	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	64	64	0
PVC subtotal		56,543	57,239	696
Total		56,543	57,239	696