PVC: Futures prices continue to test the low range, with positions approaching one million, and spot prices weakening slightly

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January 10, 2024, 4:53 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 10 V2405 contract opening price: 5815, highest price: 5824, lowest price: 5755, position: 960682, settlement price: 5779, yesterday settlement: 5802, down: 23, daily trading volume: 676797 lots, precipitated capital: 3.878 billion, capital inflow: 103 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 1.9	Price 1.10	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5430-5470	5410-5460	-20/-10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5510-5600	5500-5600	-10/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5600-5650	5570-5650	-30/0	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5470-5620	5470-5620	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5520-5590	5520-5570	0/-20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5440-5570	5440-5570	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market are mainly weak and prices continue to fall slightly in some areas. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 10-20 yuan / ton in North China, 10 yuan / ton in East China, 30 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and stable in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises mostly maintain stable ex-factory prices, some enterprises negotiate, individual enterprises slightly reduce the ex-factory price of 50 yuan / ton. Futures are on the low side, the price offer by traders in various regions has little reference significance, and there is no advantage when it is difficult to close a deal. The spot market is mainly point price offer, and the basis is slightly stronger. Among them, the basis difference offer 05 contract in East China-(180-250), South China 05 contract-(130-220), North 05 contract-(500-550), Southwest 05 contract-(250) After the previous price decline, some products enterprises have a rigid demand for replenishment, so although prices continue to weaken slightly today, trading in the spot market is flat, and some spot prices are on the low side.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night trading price down slightly, falling below the 5800 mark after a narrow concussion. At the beginning of early trading, the price fell for two times in late trading, but it fell little in early trading and then rebounded slightly, and the price fell again in the afternoon and closed at a low in late trading. 2405 contracts range from 5755 to 5824 throughout the day, with a spread of 69. 05 contracts with an increase of 30819 positions and 960682 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5871, with 65967 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures run a continuous test low range of 5750-5800, and the market continues to show a significant downward trend of increasing futures prices, in which short opening 26.8% versus opening more than 23.0% still dominates the market, with more than 960000 positions approaching 1 million. The technical level shows that the opening of the third rail of the Bolin belt (13,13,2) has an obvious downward trend, especially the lower rail of the middle rail. The daily KD line and MACD line continue the trend of dead cross, and the futures price shows a continuous downward trend from the previous high of 6153. In the current downside state of increasing positions, short-term futures may still face further pressure, so be on guard against the low position of the second target before the contract.

Spot: futures prices in the two markets continue to weaken, and there is no better deal today, but the sound of hoarding in the spot market is rising, including downstream products companies. First of all, from the perspective of futures, the continuous downward test of the low range, the current two cities may still face greater pressure, the corresponding price paid by the short positions may be greater, and the weak fundamentals are indeed the overall consensus. Therefore, there are still bargaining chips in the current short positions, but the risk of continuing to decline increases accordingly. On the other hand, for the spot, there is still a certain recovery expectation after the mid-term festival, so although the short-term demand constraints are obvious and seasonal accumulation, but the demand in the middle line to the warehouse or there is still hope. In the outer disk, the price of the international crude oil futures market rose due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the disruption of oil supply in Libya. On the whole, PVC spot prices continue the low consolidation trend in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 1.9	Price 1.10	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5800	5767	-33
	Average spot price in East China	5555	5550	-5
	Average spot price in South China	5625	5610	-15
	PVC2405 basis difference	-245	-217	28
	V2409 collection	5904	5871	-33
	V2405-2409 close	-104	-104	0
	PP2405 collection	7317	7209	-108
	Plastic L2405 collection	8025	7961	-64
	V--PP basis difference	-1517	-1442	75
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2225	-2194	31

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC fell 9.13 or 0.165% to 5534.48 on January 10. The PVC spot index of ethylene method is 5816.61, down 0%, the range is 0%, the index of calcium carbide method is down, the index of ethylene method is stable, and the price difference between ethylene method and calcium carbide method is 282.13.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	1.9 warehouse orders	1.10 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,245	2,245	0
	Guangzhou materials	963	963	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,282	1,282	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,315	1,315	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,195	1,195	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,546	5,546	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,813	2,813	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,853	4,853	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,169	21,169	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,495	3,495	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	570	570	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,682	360
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,387	1,387	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		55,897	56,257	360
Total		55,897	56,257	360