China Urea Price Index:
According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on January 10 was 2,366.82, a decrease of 6.05 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.25%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.94%.
Urea futures market:
Today, the opening price of the urea UR405 contract is 2055, the highest price is 2089, the lowest price is 2052, the settlement price is 2069, and the closing price is 2069. The closing price is 7% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.34% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2052-2089; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 221; the 05 contract has increased its position by 2746 lots today, and the position held so far is 163,200 lots.
Spot market analysis:
Today, the price of urea in China continues its downward trend, and the sales pressure of manufacturers is gradually emerging. Currently, in order to collect enough new orders, prices continue to drop.
Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,370 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,110 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,260 - 2,340 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,420 - 2,470 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,240 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,400 - 2,480 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,350 - 2,360 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,800 yuan/ton.
Market outlook forecast:
In terms of factories, manufacturers mainly issued early orders, and inventories dropped significantly. New orders were followed up in a small number. Orders were closed in the spring of the year before the year. Factory prices were flexibly adjusted, and the high market prices gradually moved closer to the low-end. The current factory prices continued to fall. In terms of the market, low-end prices continue to appear on the floor, but the overall trading atmosphere is still short, and transactions remain deadlocked and light. In terms of supply, the industry's supply has been affected by corporate equipment failures, and the improvement of Nissan has been limited. Currently, the equipment of some enterprises in Shanxi has been restored one after another, and the pneumatic equipment has been restored one after another in the middle and late of this month. The industry's capacity utilization rate has gradually increased to a low level. On the demand side, industrial and agricultural demand is still average, and demand in some regions is slowly following up, with most small orders just needing to follow up, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong.
On the whole, the current urea market supply and demand are both weak, and prices are in a stalemate. Most factories are closing orders in the spring, and the quotations continue to decline. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to stabilize and drop significantly in a short period of time, making it difficult to move upwards.
