Methanol: Futures range fluctuates, Chinese market transactions are improving

On January 9th, the methanol market price index was 2220.52, up 3.36 from the previous working day and 0.15% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on January 8:

China CFR 281-283USD / ton, Ping
Us FOB 95-96 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR 346.5-347.5 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 284.25-285.25 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2130-2190 (- 40), North Route: 1960-2000 (0), Lunan: 2350-2380 (- 30), Henan: 2260-2265 (10), Shanxi: 2140-2210 (20), Port: 24052415 (20)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-290 (0amp Mueller 30), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-310 (- 20mp 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 150-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices are arranged in a narrow range, the futures market range is volatile, the transaction atmosphere in the Chinese market is OK, and the auction transaction in Henan, Shanxi and other regions is relatively smooth. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are arranged at a high level, with the quotation for the southern route around 1950 yuan / ton and the northern line around 1960-2000 yuan / ton. the overall trading atmosphere in the market in the region is OK, and the recent freight price shocks have fallen, and the downstream market has been replenished in stages, supporting the mentality of the industry to a certain extent. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, is adjusted in a narrow range, with 2350-2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2320-2340 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The futures market is volatile and some operators have a positive mentality, but at present, the traditional downstream demand is still low, and the overall enthusiasm for restocking in the market is general. To a certain extent, the upward range of methanol is limited, and Yanzhou Mining Guohong plant resumes operation, and the supply in the region has increased. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2220-2300 yuan / ton today, which is stable than yesterday. The performance of traditional downstream demand is poor, and the overall performance of the demand side is general. However, at present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, and the new price continues to remain stable. Shanxi region quotation narrow adjustment, today's quotation raised to 2140-2210 yuan / ton, the overall market transaction atmosphere is OK.

Port market: methanol futures range fluctuated today. Spot sales, moderate price follow-up, the basis is strong; paper goods unilateral higher than the low contact price, the stock talks stalemate, the basis stabilized. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2430-2440, base difference 05 "35 prime price 40 position 1 transaction: 2420-2425, base spread 05" 25 pm 28 position 1 deal: 2400-2420, base spread 05 "20 pm 25 position 2 deal: 2420-2435, basis 05" 38 pound 42.

Future forecast: recently, the overall supply performance of the Chinese market is abundant, Yanzhou Guohong, Dahua and Henan Zhongxin units have all been restarted, the Chinese market starts up in a narrow range, and the downstream demand performance is poor, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the traditional downstream market demand is likely to fall further, the overall methanol consumption on the demand side is limited, but the restart of the 2 million-ton methanol plant in Jiutai (Tuoxian) is delayed. Local supply support is OK, downstream and traders periodic rigid demand replenishment, there is a certain support for manufacturers in the main producing areas. At present, the price of coal at the cost end is arranged in a narrow range, and the support for methanol is general. Although the supply pressure in some areas is not great, considering the poor performance of the demand downstream of the terminal and the limited support to the market, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price will fluctuate mainly in the region. However, in the later stage, we should pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.