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Caustic soda: Spot prices are mixed, the market is operating differently, and futures prices are weak and volatile

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January 9, 2024, 4:13 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    January 9 SH2405 contract opening price: 2688, highest price: 2716, lowest price: 2629, spread: 87, position: 58214, reduced position: 1549, settlement price: 2679, yesterday settlement: 2731, down: 52, closing price: 2699, daily trading volume: 111507 hands, precipitated capital: 1.131 billion, capital outflow: 27.09 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

January 8th

January ninth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

720-752

720-752

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

720-780

720-780

0/0

-

Hebei

730-750

730-750

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

910-1050

910-1050

0/0

Can price

Shandong

700-780

700-780

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

980-1020

980-1020

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

765-850

770-850

5/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2300-2350

2300-2350

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

820-860

800-840

-20/-20

Ex-factory price

Henan

2400-2650

2400-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1120-1180

1120-1180

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1240-1240

1240-1240

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1120-1190

1120-1190

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2500-2550

2500-2550

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3000-3200

3100-3300

100/100

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2600-2800

2600-2800

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3200-3300

3200-3300

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1230-1350

1210-1350

-20/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

870-930

900-960

30/30

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

2700-2800

2700-2800

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:      caustic soda market today shows a differential trend, prices in some areas rise and fall each other, price adjustment in different directions, the operation of the market in most areas is relatively stable. The price has not been significantly adjusted. The mindset of the industry is poor, and most of them wait and see the market cautiously. There is no significant adjustment in the price range. Most of the upstream production enterprises wait and see to stabilize the price, the mentality is relatively cautious, and the prices of a few manufacturers are slightly adjusted.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract weak shock operation. Zou Shizhong, whose futures price is in a weak shock all day, did not see the emergence of a large operable market throughout the day, and rebounded slightly in the afternoon. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated between 2629 and 2716 throughout the day, with a spread of 87 and a reduction of 1549 positions in the contract, with 58214 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index was 2582.89 on January 9, up 1.21%, or 0.047%. China's caustic soda index rose.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Spot aspect: the price of each region of the caustic soda market is adjusted flexibly, and the price trend is different. At present, the procurement enthusiasm of caustic soda downstream industry is not high, the overall demand performance is relatively weak, most areas maintain weak and stable operation, consumer demand under the off-season is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, or still maintain a weak situation in the later stage. Most of the devices in upstream caustic soda production enterprises operate stably, and some of them have maintenance conditions, but there are differences in inventory conditions between regions, which have different effects on prices in different regions. Most operators are more cautious and wait and see the market mainly. It is expected that the short-term spot market of caustic soda will mainly adjust prices flexibly according to the local market and enterprises' own conditions, and most areas will be arranged horizontally.

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract continues to show a downward trend today, the day more weak shock operation, today's futures price fell below the lower track support level, while falling below the MA combination line, the low point returned to the point before the rising market, the current futures price has shown a five-year negative decline trend. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) continues to narrow, and the KD line and MACD line at the daily level show a dead-forked trend. At present, there is some support under the futures price, short-term caustic soda SH2405 contract or shock operation.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

January 8th

January ninth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

1-100

1-100

0/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

-100-150

50-150

150/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on January 9, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 256.78, up 0%, 0%. China's liquid chlorine index is stable.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: